ARCC
Ares Capital Corporation
ARCC trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over ARCC overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
ARCC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
ARCC's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like ARCC.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
ARCC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.2x | $7.54 | -61% |
| Fair | 9.8x | $11.94 | -38% |
| Forward | 9.9x | $19.11 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $17.95 | -6.1% |
| Current | 16x | $19.11 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ARCC's PE is in its expensive range at 16x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 9.9x, in its fair range.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over ARCC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ARCC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect ARCC's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over ARCC on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
ARCC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.92 | +58% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.22 | -39% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.35 | -34% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.63 | -20% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.86 | -24% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.99 | -24% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.04 | -29% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.04 | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.44 | -9% |
ARCC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.22 over the past year, against $3.89 in mid-2021.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over ARCC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ARCC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | $230M | -61% |
| Q1 2022 | $375M | -27% |
| Q4 2021 | $505M | +6.1% |
| Q3 2021 | $444M | -17% |
| Q2 2021 | $585M | +59% |
| Q4 2020 | $476M | +61% |
MS has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is down 61% for ARCC versus up 12% for MS.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 53% | -31 points |
| Q1 2022 | 60% | -14 points |
| Q4 2021 | 77% | -3.6 points |
| Q3 2021 | 76% | -7.3 points |
| Q2 2021 | 84% | +7 points |
| Q1 2021 | 73% | N/A |
| Q4 2020 | 81% | +11 points |
| Q3 2020 | 84% | N/A |
ARCC's operating margin was 53% last quarter, down 31 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ARCC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +$1.8B |
| Q2 2026 | $336M | +$554M |
| Q1 2026 | $184M | +$483M |
| Q4 2025 | -$427M | -$159M |
| Q3 2025 | -$773M | -$252M |
| Q2 2025 | -$218M | +$1.1B |
| Q1 2025 | -$299M | -$278M |
| Q4 2024 | -$268M | +$91M |
ARCC has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ARCC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +2M shares |
| 1 year | +1.6% | +11M shares |
| 3 years | +24% | +138M shares |
| 5 years | +59% | +267M shares |
| Available history | +68% | +291M shares |
ARCC has 720M diluted shares, up 1.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over ARCC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
ARCC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 10.9x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 6.9x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 6.8x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 5.6x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 5.3x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 5.2x | High |
| Q4 2020 | 16.6x | High |
| Q3 2020 | 23.1x | High |
ARCC's net debt is about 11 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 5.3 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like ARCC.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ARCC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 42.5 | Neutral |
ARCC's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 42 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
ARCC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | ARCC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 13x | 20% above |
| PE % | 87 | 63 | 24 pts above |
ARCC is trading at 16x earnings, a 20% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over ARCC on valuation relative to its sector.
ARCC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $18.9 | 1% above |
| 20 week MA | $19.2 | 0.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $19.2 | 0.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $20.5 | 6.6% below |
| 200 week MA | $20.2 | 5.4% below |
ARCC has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 5.4% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over ARCC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ARCC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.6 | $16.4 | -12% |
| 2021 | $16.4 | $20.7 | +26% |
| 2022 | $20.7 | $18.7 | -9.6% |
| 2023 | $18.7 | $20.0 | +7.2% |
| 2024 | $20.0 | $22.0 | +9.9% |
| 2025 | $22.0 | $20.2 | -8.3% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.2 | $19.1 | -5.4% |
ARCC has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 5.4% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over ARCC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.