APP
AppLovin Corporation
APP has the edge over MSFT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
APP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
APP's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
APP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 20x | $394 | — |
| Current | 26x | $394 | — |
| Cheap | 42x | $618 | +57% |
| Fair | 66x | $978 | +148% |
| Expensive | 137x | $2,040 | +418% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
APP's PE is in its cheap range at 26x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over APP in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
APP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
APP has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
APP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $19.62 | +32% |
| Q3 2026 | $14.86 | +81% |
| Q2 2026 | $13.01 | +85% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.64 | +110% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.75 | +115% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.23 | +151% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.03 | +202% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.53 | +233% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.53 | +362% |
APP has the edge over MSFT on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $19.15 over the past year, up 36% from the year before, and higher year over year for 14 quarters in a row.
APP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +55% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.9B | +53% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.7B | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +40% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4B | +44% |
APP has the edge over MSFT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 78% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 78% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 78% | +33 points |
| Q4 2025 | 77% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | 77% | +32 points |
| Q2 2025 | 76% | +40 points |
| Q1 2025 | 45% | +13 points |
| Q4 2024 | 44% | +16 points |
APP has the edge over MSFT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $92.3B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT's operating margin was 50% last quarter, up 0.9 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
APP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $869M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +55% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | +91% |
| Q2 2025 | $772.2M | +70% |
| Q1 2025 | $831.7M | +112% |
| Q3 2024 | $550.7M | +177% |
| Q2 2024 | $454.5M | +101% |
APP has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
APP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -2.3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.8% | -6.2M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -22.1M shares |
| 5 years | -13% | -49.6M shares |
| Available history | +67% | +134M shares |
APP has the edge over MSFT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B |
| Q2 2026 | $551.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $981.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $417.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $501.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $271.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $1B |
| Q4 2024 | $625,000 |
APP spent $3.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 82% from the year before.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has 7.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
APP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.2x | Healthy |
APP's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
APP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.4 | Neutral |
APP's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 56 (neutral).
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
APP PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | APP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 28x | 4.9% below |
| PE % | 7 | 42 | 35 pts below |
APP has the edge over MSFT on valuation relative to its sector.
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
APP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $299.5 | 31% above |
| 20 week MA | $344.0 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $443.5 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $429.4 | 8.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $250.0 | 57% above |
APP's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 57% above its 200-week average.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over APP on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
APP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $61.0 | $93.8 | +54% |
| 2022 | $93.8 | $9.84 | -90% |
| 2023 | $9.84 | $39.9 | +305% |
| 2024 | $39.9 | $335.2 | +741% |
| 2025 | $335.2 | $714.2 | +113% |
| 2026 YTD | $714.2 | $393.7 | -45% |
APP's yearly returns have swung widely, from +741% in 2024 to −90% in 2022. It's down 45% so far in 2026.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over APP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.