APP
AppLovin Corporation
APP has the edge over LLY overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
APP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
APP's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
APP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 20x | $394 | — |
| Current | 26x | $394 | — |
| Cheap | 42x | $618 | +57% |
| Fair | 66x | $978 | +148% |
| Expensive | 137x | $2,040 | +418% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
APP has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
APP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for APP, with profitability improving.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
APP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $19.62 | +32% |
| Q3 2026 | $14.86 | +81% |
| Q2 2026 | $13.01 | +85% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.64 | +110% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.75 | +115% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.23 | +151% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.03 | +202% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.53 | +233% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.53 | +362% |
APP has the edge over LLY on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.83 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $30.81 over the past year, up 51% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
APP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +55% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.9B | +53% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.7B | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +40% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4B | +44% |
APP's revenue has grown year over year for 13 quarters in a row: $2.2B last quarter, up 55% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 78% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 78% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 78% | +33 points |
| Q4 2025 | 77% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | 77% | +32 points |
| Q2 2025 | 76% | +40 points |
| Q1 2025 | 45% | +13 points |
| Q4 2024 | 44% | +16 points |
APP has the edge over LLY on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over APP on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY's operating margin was 34% last quarter, down 6.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
APP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $869M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +55% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | +91% |
| Q2 2025 | $772.2M | +70% |
| Q1 2025 | $831.7M | +112% |
| Q3 2024 | $550.7M | +177% |
| Q2 2024 | $454.5M | +101% |
APP has the edge over LLY on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY generated $19.7B in free cash flow over the past year, up 112% from the year before.
APP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -2.3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.8% | -6.2M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -22.1M shares |
| 5 years | -13% | -49.6M shares |
| Available history | +67% | +134M shares |
APP has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B |
| Q2 2026 | $551.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $981.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $417.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $501.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $271.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $1B |
| Q4 2024 | $625,000 |
APP spent $3.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 82% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
APP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.2x | Healthy |
APP has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
APP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.4 | Neutral |
APP's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 56 (neutral).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
APP PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | APP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 28x | 4.9% below |
| PE % | 7 | 42 | 35 pts below |
APP has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
APP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $299.5 | 31% above |
| 20 week MA | $344.0 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $443.5 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $429.4 | 8.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $250.0 | 57% above |
APP's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 57% above its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over APP on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
APP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $61.0 | $93.8 | +54% |
| 2022 | $93.8 | $9.84 | -90% |
| 2023 | $9.84 | $39.9 | +305% |
| 2024 | $39.9 | $335.2 | +741% |
| 2025 | $335.2 | $714.2 | +113% |
| 2026 YTD | $714.2 | $393.7 | -45% |
APP's yearly returns have swung widely, from +741% in 2024 to −90% in 2022. It's down 45% so far in 2026.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over APP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.