APP
AppLovin Corporation
APP has the edge over IBM overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
IBM has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
APP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
APP's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
IBM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
IBM's profitability and cash flow are currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
APP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 20x | $394 | — |
| Current | 26x | $394 | — |
| Cheap | 42x | $618 | +57% |
| Fair | 66x | $978 | +148% |
| Expensive | 137x | $2,040 | +418% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
APP has the edge over IBM in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
IBM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 17x | $194 | -21% |
| Forward | 19x | $245 | — |
| Current | 21x | $245 | — |
| Fair | 23x | $274 | +12% |
| Expensive | 46x | $538 | +120% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
IBM's PE is in its cheap range at 21x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 19x next year's earnings.
APP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
APP has the edge over IBM on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
IBM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect IBM's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
APP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $19.62 | +32% |
| Q3 2026 | $14.86 | +81% |
| Q2 2026 | $13.01 | +85% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.64 | +110% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.75 | +115% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.23 | +151% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.03 | +202% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.53 | +233% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.53 | +362% |
APP has the edge over IBM on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
IBM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.06 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $11.75 | +40% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.29 | +83% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.33 | +94% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.17 | +74% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.38 | +22% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.18 | -32% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.83 | -34% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.43 | -21% |
IBM earned $11.75 per share over the past year, up 40% from the year before.
APP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +55% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.9B | +53% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.7B | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +40% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4B | +44% |
APP has the edge over IBM on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 78% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 78% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 78% | +33 points |
| Q4 2025 | 77% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | 77% | +32 points |
| Q2 2025 | 76% | +40 points |
| Q1 2025 | 45% | +13 points |
| Q4 2024 | 44% | +16 points |
APP has the edge over IBM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
IBM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $17.1B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.2B | +1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.9B | +9.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.7B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $16.3B | +9.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $17B | +7.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.5B | +0.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $17.6B | +1% |
IBM's revenue has grown year over year for 13 quarters in a row: $17.1B last quarter, up 4.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.7% | +0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +20 points |
| Q2 2025 | 15% | +1.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | -2.8 points |
IBM's operating margin was 15% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
APP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $869M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +55% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | +91% |
| Q2 2025 | $772.2M | +70% |
| Q1 2025 | $831.7M | +112% |
| Q3 2024 | $550.7M | +177% |
| Q2 2024 | $454.5M | +101% |
APP has the edge over IBM on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
IBM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.4B | +59% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.9B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.7B | -9.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.8B | +8.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5B | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.1B | +5% |
| Q4 2024 | $4B | -3.3% |
IBM's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $14.7B over the past year, up 18% from the year before.
APP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -2.3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.8% | -6.2M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -22.1M shares |
| 5 years | -13% | -49.6M shares |
| Available history | +67% | +134M shares |
APP has the edge over IBM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B |
| Q2 2026 | $551.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $981.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $417.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $501.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $271.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $1B |
| Q4 2024 | $625,000 |
APP spent $3.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 82% from the year before.
IBM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +260K shares |
| 1 year | +0.5% | +4.6M shares |
| 3 years | +3.2% | +29.9M shares |
| 5 years | +5.3% | +47.6M shares |
| Available history | +2.1% | +19.6M shares |
IBM has 954M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | — |
APP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.2x | Healthy |
APP has the edge over IBM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
IBM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.0x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.6x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 4.4x | High |
IBM's net debt is about 3.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.2 years a year ago.
APP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.4 | Neutral |
APP's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 56 (neutral).
IBM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.8 | Neutral |
IBM's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
APP PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | APP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 28x | 4.9% below |
| PE % | 7 | 42 | 35 pts below |
APP is trading at 26x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
IBM PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | IBM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 28x | 25% below |
| PE % | 31 | 35 | 4 pts below |
IBM has the edge over APP on valuation relative to its sector.
APP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $299.5 | 31% above |
| 20 week MA | $344.0 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $443.5 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $429.4 | 8.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $250.0 | 57% above |
APP's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 57% above its 200-week average.
IBM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $238.6 | 2.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $239.3 | 2.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $256.6 | 4.6% below |
| 100 week MA | $258.5 | 5.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $212.3 | 15% above |
IBM's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 15% above its 200-week average.
APP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $61.0 | $93.8 | +54% |
| 2022 | $93.8 | $9.84 | -90% |
| 2023 | $9.84 | $39.9 | +305% |
| 2024 | $39.9 | $335.2 | +741% |
| 2025 | $335.2 | $714.2 | +113% |
| 2026 YTD | $714.2 | $393.7 | -45% |
APP's yearly returns have swung widely, from +741% in 2024 to −90% in 2022. It's down 45% so far in 2026.
IBM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $129.3 | $119.2 | -7.8% |
| 2021 | $119.2 | $130.6 | +9.6% |
| 2022 | $130.6 | $141.7 | +8.4% |
| 2023 | $141.7 | $163.6 | +15% |
| 2024 | $163.6 | $222.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $222.8 | $305.1 | +37% |
| 2026 YTD | $305.1 | $244.7 | -20% |
IBM has the edge over APP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.