AOS
A. O. Smith Corporation
AOS offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over AOS overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
AOS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
AOS's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AOS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 17x | $63.98 | — |
| Cheap | 18x | $63.76 | -0.3% |
| Current | 18x | $63.98 | — |
| Fair | 21x | $75.16 | +17% |
| Expensive | 30x | $107 | +67% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AOS has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AOS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect AOS's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over AOS on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
AOS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.73 | +4.1% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.58 | -3.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.59 | 0% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.75 | +4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.85 | +6.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.71 | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.59 | -7.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.58 | -7% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.63 | -1.6% |
AOS earned $3.58 per share over the past year, down 3.5% from the year before.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
AOS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $940.5M | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $945.6M | -1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $912.5M | 0% |
| Q3 2025 | $942.5M | +4.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | -1.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $963.9M | -1.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $912.4M | -7.7% |
AOS's revenue grew through 2021 and has held roughly level since: $941M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | -3.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | -2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 19% | -0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 20% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 19% | -2.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 17% | -2.6 points |
AOS's operating margin was 19% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over AOS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over AOS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AOS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $162.9M | -32% |
| Q2 2026 | $114.4M | -6.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $118.9M | +583% |
| Q4 2025 | $165.5M | -13% |
| Q3 2025 | $240.6M | +47% |
| Q2 2025 | $122.5M | +255% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.4M | -79% |
| Q4 2024 | $191.3M | -5% |
AOS's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $562M over the past year, down 1.8% from the year before.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over AOS on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AOS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.3% | -1.8M shares |
| 1 year | -3.4% | -4.8M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -15.1M shares |
| 5 years | -15% | -24.5M shares |
| Available history | -18% | -30.6M shares |
AOS has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $98.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $111.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $51.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $65.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $84.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $130.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $120.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $68.7M |
AOS spent $326M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 19% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
AOS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
AOS's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over AOS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AOS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 75.5 | Neutral |
AOS's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 76 (neutral).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
AOS PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | AOS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 24x | 26% below |
| PE % | 18 | 58 | 40 pts below |
AOS has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
AOS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $60.5 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $60.6 | 5.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $64.2 | 0.3% below |
| 100 week MA | $66.1 | 3.2% below |
| 200 week MA | $71.0 | 9.9% below |
AOS has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 9.9% below its 200-week average.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
AOS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $47.8 | $55.5 | +16% |
| 2021 | $55.5 | $82.8 | +49% |
| 2022 | $82.8 | $56.9 | -31% |
| 2023 | $56.9 | $82.4 | +45% |
| 2024 | $82.4 | $68.4 | -17% |
| 2025 | $68.4 | $67.8 | -1% |
| 2026 YTD | $67.8 | $64.0 | -5.6% |
AOS has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 5.6% so far in 2026.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over AOS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.