AON
Aon plc
AON offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over AON overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
AON Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AON's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AON.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
AON PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 17x | $333 | — |
| Current | 18x | $333 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $423 | +27% |
| Fair | 27x | $500 | +50% |
| Expensive | 34x | $616 | +85% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AON has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
AON Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AON, but weaker profitability.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over AON on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and profitability expectations.
AON Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $19.21 | +5.2% |
| Q3 2026 | $18.26 | +48% |
| Q2 2026 | $18.14 | +54% |
| Q1 2026 | $18.22 | +57% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.02 | +36% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.31 | +3.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.77 | -6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.57 | -9.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.49 | -0.2% |
AON earned $18.26 per share over the past year, up 48% from the year before. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over AON on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AON Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.1B | +2.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.2B | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $5B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.3B | +3.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $4B | +7.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.2B | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.7B | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.1B | +23% |
AON's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $4.1B last quarter, up 2.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | -0.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 22% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +3.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 28% | +1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | +3.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 21% | +3.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | -5.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 26% | +3.2 points |
AON's operating margin was 20% last quarter, down 0.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over AON on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over AON on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AON Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +1.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $483M | -34% |
| Q1 2026 | $363M | +332% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $732M | +59% |
| Q1 2025 | $84M | -68% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | -5.5% |
AON has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AON Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -900K shares |
| 1 year | -1.7% | -3.7M shares |
| 3 years | +4.1% | +8.4M shares |
| 5 years | -5.5% | -12.4M shares |
| Available history | -11% | -27.6M shares |
AON has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $600M |
| Q1 2026 | $500M |
| Q4 2025 | $250M |
| Q3 2025 | $250M |
| Q2 2025 | $250M |
| Q1 2025 | $250M |
| Q4 2024 | $200M |
AON spent $1.4B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 42% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
AON Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 4.0x | Elevated |
AON has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AON Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 62.2 | Neutral |
AON's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 62 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
AON PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AON | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 13x | 40% above |
| PE % | 5 | 63 | 58 pts below |
AON is trading at 18x earnings, a 40% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x, though its earnings don't support one.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over AON on valuation relative to its sector.
AON Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $300.9 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $327.8 | 1.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $329.9 | 1.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $347.4 | 4% below |
| 200 week MA | $335.2 | 0.5% below |
AON has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 0.5% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
AON Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $207.5 | $210.6 | +1.5% |
| 2021 | $210.6 | $292.4 | +39% |
| 2022 | $292.4 | $300.6 | +2.8% |
| 2023 | $300.6 | $291.0 | -3.2% |
| 2024 | $291.0 | $360.4 | +24% |
| 2025 | $360.4 | $356.7 | -1% |
| 2026 YTD | $356.7 | $333.4 | -6.5% |
AON has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 6.5% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over AON on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.