AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
AMZN has the edge over HGV overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
HGV offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
AMZN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
AMZN's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its cash flow is weak.
HGV Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
HGV's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
AMZN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 22x | $267 | — |
| Forward | 27x | $267 | — |
| Cheap | 34x | $415 | +55% |
| Fair | 60x | $745 | +179% |
| Expensive | 102x | $1,262 | +372% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AMZN has the edge over HGV in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HGV PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 8.5x | $43.92 | — |
| Forward | 9.5x | $43.92 | — |
| Cheap | 13x | $65.69 | +50% |
| Fair | 20x | $104 | +138% |
| Expensive | 80x | $411 | +837% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HGV's PE is in its cheap range at 8.5x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 9.5x.
AMZN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
AMZN has the edge over HGV on the outlook, with more favorable revenue and profitability expectations.
HGV Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect HGV's earnings to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AMZN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.87 | -20% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.37 | +75% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.43 | +89% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.36 | +36% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.17 | +30% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.08 | +52% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.56 | +57% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.14 | +72% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.53 | +91% |
AMZN has the edge over HGV on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HGV Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.63 | -10% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.17 | +840% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.75 | +218% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.85 | +478% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.89 | +98% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.55 | -38% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.55 | -62% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.32 | -85% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.45 | -84% |
HGV's earnings per share have jumped to their highest in seven years: $5.17 over the past year, up from $0.55 the year before.
AMZN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $201.9B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $200.6B | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $181.5B | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $213.4B | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $180.2B | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $167.7B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $155.7B | +8.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $187.8B | +10% |
AMZN has the edge over HGV on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +4.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +2.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +1.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.7% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | +3.5 points |
AMZN's operating margin was 14% last quarter, up 4.2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
HGV Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2B | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4B | +7.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +3.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | -0.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +2.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | -0.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | +26% |
HGV's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $2B last quarter, up 51% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 25% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.7% | -2.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | +5.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | +2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.3% | -3.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.8% | +1.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.2% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | -4.2 points |
HGV has the edge over AMZN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AMZN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$34.8B | -8202% |
| Q2 2026 | -$8.8B | -2757% |
| Q1 2026 | -$18.2B | -$10.2B |
| Q4 2025 | $14.9B | -16% |
| Q3 2025 | $430M | -87% |
| Q2 2025 | $332M | -96% |
| Q1 2025 | -$8B | -297% |
| Q4 2024 | $17.8B | -36% |
AMZN's free cash flow was −$46.9B over the past year, against $10.6B the year before.
HGV Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $73M | +462% |
| Q2 2026 | $131M | +185% |
| Q1 2026 | $122M | +408% |
| Q4 2025 | $147M | +63% |
| Q3 2025 | $13M | -84% |
| Q2 2025 | $46M | -57% |
| Q1 2025 | $24M | +$34M |
| Q4 2024 | $90M | +$103M |
HGV has the edge over AMZN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AMZN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +26M shares |
| 1 year | +0.8% | +84M shares |
| 3 years | +3.5% | +371M shares |
| 5 years | +6.1% | +629M shares |
| Available history | +8.2% | +829M shares |
AMZN has 10.9B diluted shares, up 0.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | $3.3B |
HGV Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.8% | -2.3M shares |
| 1 year | -13% | -11.5M shares |
| 3 years | -29% | -32.3M shares |
| 5 years | -28% | -30.5M shares |
| Available history | -12% | -10.7M shares |
HGV has the edge over AMZN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $110M |
| Q2 2026 | $150M |
| Q1 2026 | $150M |
| Q4 2025 | $150M |
| Q3 2025 | $150M |
| Q2 2025 | $150M |
| Q1 2025 | $150M |
| Q4 2024 | $125M |
HGV spent $560M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 2.6% from the year before.
AMZN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
AMZN has the edge over HGV on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HGV Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 5.7x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 5.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.9x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 6.5x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.9x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.9x | High |
HGV's net debt is about 3.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 6.5 years a year ago.
AMZN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 50.0 | Neutral |
AMZN's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 50 (neutral).
HGV Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
HGV's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
AMZN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | AMZN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 18x | 20% above |
| PE % | 4 | 47 | 43 pts below |
AMZN is trading at 22x earnings, a 20% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its recent earnings include one-off gains.
HGV PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | HGV | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.5x | 18x | 53% below |
| PE % | 3 | 47 | 44 pts below |
HGV has the edge over AMZN on valuation relative to its sector.
AMZN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $253.6 | 5.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $254.9 | 4.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $242.5 | 10% above |
| 100 week MA | $229.6 | 17% above |
| 200 week MA | $191.4 | 40% above |
AMZN has the edge over HGV on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
HGV Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $37.9 | 16% above |
| 20 week MA | $42.4 | 3.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $44.7 | 1.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $43.0 | 2.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $42.5 | 3.4% above |
HGV's trend is mixed: it's above four of its five weekly moving averages, and 3.4% above its 200-week average.
AMZN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $93.5 | $158.6 | +70% |
| 2021 | $158.6 | $171.1 | +7.8% |
| 2022 | $171.1 | $85.3 | -50% |
| 2023 | $85.3 | $151.9 | +78% |
| 2024 | $151.9 | $223.8 | +47% |
| 2025 | $223.8 | $232.5 | +3.9% |
| 2026 YTD | $232.5 | $267.4 | +15% |
AMZN has the edge over HGV on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
HGV Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $34.5 | $30.5 | -12% |
| 2021 | $30.5 | $51.2 | +68% |
| 2022 | $51.2 | $39.0 | -24% |
| 2023 | $39.0 | $40.2 | +3.2% |
| 2024 | $40.2 | $39.6 | -1.4% |
| 2025 | $39.6 | $45.2 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $45.2 | $43.9 | -2.9% |
HGV has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 2.9% so far in 2026.