AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
AMZN has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ETSY
Etsy, Inc.
ETSY has the edge over AMZN overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
AMZN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
AMZN's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its cash flow is weak.
ETSY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
ETSY's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
AMZN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 22x | $267 | — |
| Forward | 27x | $267 | — |
| Cheap | 34x | $415 | +55% |
| Fair | 60x | $745 | +179% |
| Expensive | 102x | $1,262 | +372% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AMZN's PE is in its cheap range at 22x, but its recent earnings include one-off gains. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 27x.
ETSY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $88.29 | — |
| Forward | 19x | $88.29 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $233 | +164% |
| Fair | 40x | $343 | +288% |
| Expensive | 77x | $662 | +649% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ETSY has the edge over AMZN in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
AMZN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AMZN, with profitability improving.
ETSY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ETSY, with profitability improving.
AMZN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.87 | -20% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.37 | +75% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.43 | +89% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.36 | +36% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.17 | +30% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.08 | +52% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.56 | +57% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.14 | +72% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.53 | +91% |
AMZN has the edge over ETSY on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ETSY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.58 | -46% |
| Q3 2026 | $8.55 | +511% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.87 | +53% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.48 | +80% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.39 | -41% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.40 | -29% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.22 | -43% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.38 | -37% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.35 | +4.9% |
ETSY's earnings per share have jumped to their highest in seven years: $8.55 over the past year, up from $1.40 the year before.
AMZN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $201.9B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $200.6B | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $181.5B | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $213.4B | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $180.2B | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $167.7B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $155.7B | +8.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $187.8B | +10% |
AMZN has the edge over ETSY on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +4.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +2.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +1.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.7% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | +3.5 points |
AMZN's operating margin was 14% last quarter, up 4.2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
ETSY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $692.5M | +2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $668.3M | -0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $631.3M | -3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $881.6M | +3.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $678M | +2.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $672.7M | +3.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $651.2M | +0.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $852.2M | +1.2% |
ETSY's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $692M last quarter, up 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16% | +3.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +7.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | +22 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | -3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | -0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | +0.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | -3.4% | -14 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | +4.5 points |
ETSY has the edge over AMZN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AMZN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$34.8B | -8202% |
| Q2 2026 | -$8.8B | -2757% |
| Q1 2026 | -$18.2B | -$10.2B |
| Q4 2025 | $14.9B | -16% |
| Q3 2025 | $430M | -87% |
| Q2 2025 | $332M | -96% |
| Q1 2025 | -$8B | -297% |
| Q4 2024 | $17.8B | -36% |
AMZN's free cash flow was −$46.9B over the past year, against $10.6B the year before.
ETSY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $158.3M | -26% |
| Q2 2026 | $39.3M | -61% |
| Q1 2026 | $79.3M | +73% |
| Q4 2025 | $315.9M | +1.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $215M | +0.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $101.3M | -31% |
| Q1 2025 | $45.9M | -31% |
| Q4 2024 | $310.9M | +7.2% |
ETSY has the edge over AMZN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AMZN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +26M shares |
| 1 year | +0.8% | +84M shares |
| 3 years | +3.5% | +371M shares |
| 5 years | +6.1% | +629M shares |
| Available history | +8.2% | +829M shares |
AMZN has 10.9B diluted shares, up 0.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | $3.3B |
ETSY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.3% | -2.7M shares |
| 1 year | -3.5% | -4.3M shares |
| 3 years | -17% | -23.8M shares |
| 5 years | -19% | -27.6M shares |
| Available history | -6.7% | -8.5M shares |
ETSY has the edge over AMZN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $394.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $249.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $145.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $133.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $119.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $334.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $189.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $259.6M |
ETSY spent $923M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 2.1% from the year before.
AMZN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
AMZN has the edge over ETSY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ETSY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.3x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 4.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 4.5x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 3.0x | Elevated |
ETSY's net debt is about 1.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.4 years a year ago.
AMZN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 50.0 | Neutral |
AMZN's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 50 (neutral).
ETSY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 75.1 | Neutral |
ETSY's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
AMZN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | AMZN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 18x | 20% above |
| PE % | 4 | 47 | 43 pts below |
AMZN is trading at 22x earnings, a 20% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its recent earnings include one-off gains.
ETSY PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | ETSY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 18x | 43% below |
| PE % | 0 | 47 | 47 pts below |
ETSY has the edge over AMZN on valuation relative to its sector.
AMZN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $253.6 | 5.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $254.9 | 4.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $242.5 | 10% above |
| 100 week MA | $229.6 | 17% above |
| 200 week MA | $191.4 | 40% above |
AMZN is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 40% above its 200-week average.
ETSY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $82.2 | 7.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $80.7 | 9.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $67.5 | 31% above |
| 100 week MA | $61.5 | 44% above |
| 200 week MA | $68.7 | 29% above |
ETSY has climbed back above all five of its weekly moving averages, and it's now 29% above its 200-week average.
AMZN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $93.5 | $158.6 | +70% |
| 2021 | $158.6 | $171.1 | +7.8% |
| 2022 | $171.1 | $85.3 | -50% |
| 2023 | $85.3 | $151.9 | +78% |
| 2024 | $151.9 | $223.8 | +47% |
| 2025 | $223.8 | $232.5 | +3.9% |
| 2026 YTD | $232.5 | $267.4 | +15% |
AMZN has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 15% so far in 2026.
ETSY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $45.0 | $190.3 | +323% |
| 2021 | $190.3 | $228.1 | +20% |
| 2022 | $228.1 | $126.9 | -44% |
| 2023 | $126.9 | $81.1 | -36% |
| 2024 | $81.1 | $52.7 | -35% |
| 2025 | $52.7 | $55.8 | +5.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $55.8 | $88.3 | +58% |
ETSY has the edge over AMZN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.