AMTB
Amerant Bancorp Inc.
AMTB offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has a slight edge over AMTB overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
AMTB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AMTB's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AMTB.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
AMTB PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.5x | $16.09 | -47% |
| Forward | 11x | $30.42 | — |
| Fair | 16x | $27.09 | -11% |
| Current | 18x | $30.42 | — |
| Expensive | 34x | $58.59 | +93% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AMTB has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
AMTB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AMTB, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
AMTB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.77 | +63% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.70 | -0.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.40 | +$1.47 |
| Q1 2026 | $1.42 | +$1.89 |
| Q4 2025 | $1.26 | +$1.70 |
| Q3 2025 | $1.71 | +$3.20 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.07 | -112% |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.47 | -170% |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.44 | -146% |
AMTB's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.70 over the past year, against $3.08 in early 2022.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over AMTB on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AMTB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $108.8M | -2.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $100.7M | -8.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $97.7M | -7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $112.2M | +0.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $111.4M | +235% |
| Q2 2025 | $110.3M | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $105.4M | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $111.3M | +9.9% |
AMTB's revenue has slid since its 2021 peak: $109M last quarter, down 2.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 31% | +14 points |
| Q2 2026 | 27% | -0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 23% | +8.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.7% | -15 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | +203 points |
| Q2 2025 | 27% | +21 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 16% | +37 points |
AMTB's operating margin was 31% last quarter, up 14 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over AMTB on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over AMTB on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AMTB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $56.4M | +138% |
| Q2 2026 | $39.4M | -30% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.1M | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $31.3M | -59% |
| Q3 2025 | $23.7M | +815% |
| Q2 2025 | $56.3M | +$60.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $18M | +$18.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $76.7M | +$93.6M |
AMTB has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AMTB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -64.8K shares |
| 1 year | -5.6% | -2.3M shares |
| 3 years | +17% | +5.7M shares |
| 5 years | +4.6% | +1.8M shares |
| Available history | -7.3% | -3.1M shares |
AMTB has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2M |
| Q2 2026 | $16.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $18.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $13M |
| Q3 2025 | $10M |
| Q2 2025 | $5M |
| Q1 2025 | $5M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
AMTB spent $50M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 150% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
AMTB Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.0x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 8.9x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 9.5x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 9.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 93.7x | High |
| Q2 2024 | 24.6x | High |
| Q1 2024 | 20.9x | High |
AMTB's net debt is about 8.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 9.2 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like AMTB.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS has the edge over AMTB on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AMTB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 69.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 69.7 | Neutral |
AMTB's weekly RSI is 69 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 70 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
AMTB PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AMTB | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 13x | 37% above |
| PE % | 55 | 63 | 8 pts below |
AMTB is trading at 18x earnings, a 37% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over AMTB on valuation relative to its sector.
AMTB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $29.6 | 2.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $28.8 | 5.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $24.7 | 23% above |
| 100 week MA | $22.2 | 37% above |
| 200 week MA | $22.0 | 39% above |
AMTB has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
AMTB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $21.8 | $15.2 | -30% |
| 2021 | $15.2 | $34.1 | +125% |
| 2022 | $34.1 | $27.0 | -21% |
| 2023 | $27.0 | $24.6 | -8.9% |
| 2024 | $24.6 | $22.3 | -9.1% |
| 2025 | $22.3 | $20.1 | -10% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.1 | $30.4 | +52% |
AMTB has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.