AMGN
Amgen Inc.
AMGN has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over AMGN overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
AMGN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
AMGN's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AMGN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 19x | $319 | -32% |
| Forward | 19x | $467 | — |
| Fair | 22x | $381 | -18% |
| Expensive | 27x | $465 | -0.5% |
| Current | 27x | $467 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AMGN has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AMGN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AMGN, with profitability improving.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
AMGN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $24.33 | +41% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.24 | +33% |
| Q2 2026 | $16.09 | +31% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.37 | +31% |
| Q4 2025 | $14.23 | +88% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.95 | +66% |
| Q2 2025 | $12.24 | +111% |
| Q1 2025 | $10.97 | +57% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.56 | -39% |
AMGN earned $17.24 per share over the past year, up 33% from the year before.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over AMGN on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AMGN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $10.4B | +8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.1B | +9.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.6B | +5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.9B | +8.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.6B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.2B | +9.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.1B | +9.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $9.1B | +11% |
AMGN's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $10.4B last quarter, up 8.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 36% | +9.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 35% | +6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 31% | +17 points |
| Q4 2025 | 28% | +2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 26% | +2.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 29% | +6.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 25% | +9.9 points |
AMGN has the edge over LLY on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over AMGN on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY's operating margin was 34% last quarter, down 6.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AMGN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5B | +83% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $961M | -78% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.2B | +28% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.9B | -14% |
| Q1 2025 | $980M | +114% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.4B | +1422% |
AMGN's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $9.6B over the past year, down 17% from the year before.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over AMGN on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AMGN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +4M shares |
| 3 years | +1.5% | +8M shares |
| 5 years | -4.2% | -24M shares |
| Available history | -10% | -63M shares |
AMGN has 546M diluted shares, up 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | $6.4B |
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over AMGN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
AMGN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.8x | Elevated |
AMGN's net debt is about 2.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.8 years a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY has the edge over AMGN on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AMGN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 67.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.5 | Overbought |
AMGN's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 85 (overbought).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
AMGN PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | AMGN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 26x | 4.8% above |
| PE % | 84 | 29 | 55 pts above |
AMGN has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
AMGN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $437.2 | 6.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $413.1 | 13% above |
| 50 week MA | $373.0 | 25% above |
| 100 week MA | $332.6 | 40% above |
| 200 week MA | $304.8 | 53% above |
AMGN is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 53% above its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
AMGN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $241.5 | $222.9 | -7.7% |
| 2021 | $222.9 | $223.8 | +0.4% |
| 2022 | $223.8 | $263.9 | +18% |
| 2023 | $263.9 | $288.0 | +9.1% |
| 2024 | $288.0 | $262.7 | -8.8% |
| 2025 | $262.7 | $332.9 | +27% |
| 2026 YTD | $332.9 | $467.1 | +40% |
AMGN has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.