AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
AMBP has the edge over TSLA overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
AMBP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
AMBP's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
TSLA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
TSLA's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
AMBP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $0.95 | -79% |
| Forward | 17x | $4.61 | — |
| Fair | 41x | $3.71 | -19% |
| Current | 53x | $4.61 | — |
| Expensive | 88x | $7.92 | +72% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AMBP has the edge over TSLA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TSLA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 60x | $54.70 | -86% |
| Fair | 174x | $158 | -60% |
| Forward | 196x | $397 | — |
| Expensive | 415x | $378 | -4.9% |
| Current | 437x | $397 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TSLA's PE is in its expensive range at 437x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 196x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AMBP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AMBP, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TSLA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TSLA, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AMBP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.28 | +208% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.09 | +$0.11 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.05 | +$0.08 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.01 | +$0.03 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.02 | +$0.02 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.02 | +$0.09 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.03 | +$0.07 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.04 | +$0.07 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.04 | +$0.07 |
AMBP has the edge over TSLA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSLA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.03 | +123% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.91 | -39% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.08 | -38% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.08 | -47% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.50 | -59% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.73 | -51% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.82 | -53% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.04 | -53% |
TSLA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.91 over the past year, against $4.30 in late 2023.
AMBP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5B | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.2B | +5.6% |
AMBP has the edge over TSLA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.7% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.7% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.7% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.2% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.9% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.2% | +2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.2% | +5 points |
AMBP has the edge over TSLA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TSLA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28B | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.2B | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.4B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.9B | -3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $28.1B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.5B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.3B | -9.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.7B | +2.1% |
TSLA's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $28B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6% | -3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.2% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.8% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.1% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1% | -3.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.2% | -2 points |
TSLA's operating margin was 2.6% last quarter, down 3.2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
AMBP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $136M | +3.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $256M | +52% |
| Q1 2026 | -$405M | -$56M |
| Q4 2025 | $315M | -7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $131M | +3.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $168M | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | -$349M | +$51M |
| Q4 2024 | $339M | -6.9% |
AMBP has the edge over TSLA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSLA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | -62% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.1B | -848% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +117% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $4B | +46% |
| Q2 2025 | $146M | -89% |
| Q1 2025 | $664M | +$3.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | -1.6% |
TSLA still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2025 peak: $3.3B over the past year.
AMBP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | -- |
| 3 years | 0% | +100K shares |
| 5 years | +6.2% | +34.9M shares |
| Available history | +21% | +104M shares |
AMBP has the edge over TSLA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $289M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
AMBP spent $289M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
TSLA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +15M shares |
| 3 years | +1.4% | +48M shares |
| 5 years | +5.1% | +172M shares |
| Available history | +33% | +886M shares |
TSLA has 3.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
AMBP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.9x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 6.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 6.0x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3x | High |
AMBP's net debt is about 5.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 5.5 years a year ago.
TSLA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
TSLA has the edge over AMBP on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AMBP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 30.6 | Neutral |
AMBP's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
TSLA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 72.6 | Neutral |
TSLA's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
AMBP PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | AMBP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 53x | 18x | 196% above |
| PE % | 73 | 55 | 18 pts above |
AMBP has the edge over TSLA on valuation relative to its sector.
TSLA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TSLA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 437x | 18x | 2,324% above |
| PE % | 84 | 47 | 37 pts above |
TSLA is trading at 437x earnings, a 2324% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
AMBP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $4.54 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $4.76 | 3.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.44 | 3.8% above |
| 100 week MA | $3.97 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $3.86 | 19% above |
AMBP's trend is mixed: it's above four of its five weekly moving averages, and 19% above its 200-week average.
TSLA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $376.0 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $364.0 | 9.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $393.6 | 1% above |
| 100 week MA | $372.1 | 6.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $296.9 | 34% above |
TSLA has the edge over AMBP on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AMBP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $9.99 | $8.89 | -11% |
| 2022 | $8.89 | $4.75 | -47% |
| 2023 | $4.75 | $3.84 | -19% |
| 2024 | $3.84 | $3.02 | -21% |
| 2025 | $3.02 | $4.06 | +34% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.06 | $4.61 | +14% |
AMBP has the edge over TSLA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TSLA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.7 | $220.6 | +669% |
| 2021 | $220.6 | $355.7 | +61% |
| 2022 | $355.7 | $123.2 | -65% |
| 2023 | $123.2 | $248.5 | +102% |
| 2024 | $248.5 | $431.7 | +74% |
| 2025 | $431.7 | $475.2 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $475.2 | $397.5 | -16% |
TSLA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +669% in 2020 to −65% in 2022. It's down 16% so far in 2026.