AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
AMBP has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has a slight edge over AMBP overall, supported by stronger valuation.
AMBP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
AMBP's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
AMBP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $0.95 | -79% |
| Forward | 17x | $4.61 | — |
| Fair | 41x | $3.71 | -19% |
| Current | 53x | $4.61 | — |
| Expensive | 88x | $7.92 | +72% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AMBP's PE is in its expensive range at 53x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 17x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE has the edge over AMBP in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
AMBP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AMBP, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AMBP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.28 | +208% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.09 | +$0.11 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.05 | +$0.08 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.01 | +$0.03 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.02 | +$0.02 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.02 | +$0.09 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.03 | +$0.07 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.04 | +$0.07 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.04 | +$0.07 |
AMBP has the edge over NKE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
AMBP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5B | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.2B | +5.6% |
AMBP has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.7% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.7% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.7% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.2% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.9% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.2% | +2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.2% | +5 points |
AMBP's operating margin was 6.7% last quarter, up 0.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE has the edge over AMBP on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AMBP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $136M | +3.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $256M | +52% |
| Q1 2026 | -$405M | -$56M |
| Q4 2025 | $315M | -7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $131M | +3.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $168M | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | -$349M | +$51M |
| Q4 2024 | $339M | -6.9% |
AMBP has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
AMBP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | -- |
| 3 years | 0% | +100K shares |
| 5 years | +6.2% | +34.9M shares |
| Available history | +21% | +104M shares |
AMBP has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $289M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
AMBP spent $289M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
AMBP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.9x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 6.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 6.0x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3x | High |
AMBP's net debt is about 5.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 5.5 years a year ago.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE has the edge over AMBP on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AMBP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 30.6 | Neutral |
AMBP's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
AMBP PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | AMBP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 53x | 18x | 196% above |
| PE % | 73 | 55 | 18 pts above |
AMBP is trading at 53x earnings, a 196% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE has the edge over AMBP on valuation relative to its sector.
AMBP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $4.54 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $4.76 | 3.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.44 | 3.8% above |
| 100 week MA | $3.97 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $3.86 | 19% above |
AMBP has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
AMBP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $9.99 | $8.89 | -11% |
| 2022 | $8.89 | $4.75 | -47% |
| 2023 | $4.75 | $3.84 | -19% |
| 2024 | $3.84 | $3.02 | -21% |
| 2025 | $3.02 | $4.06 | +34% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.06 | $4.61 | +14% |
AMBP has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.