AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
AMBP has the edge over LCID overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
LCID offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
AMBP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
AMBP's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
LCID Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
LCID's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
AMBP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $0.95 | -79% |
| Forward | 17x | $4.61 | — |
| Fair | 41x | $3.71 | -19% |
| Current | 53x | $4.61 | — |
| Expensive | 88x | $7.92 | +72% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AMBP's PE is in its expensive range at 53x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 17x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
LCID PE Valuation
LCID has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AMBP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AMBP, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LCID Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect LCID's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AMBP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.28 | +208% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.09 | +$0.11 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.05 | +$0.08 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.01 | +$0.03 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.02 | +$0.02 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.02 | +$0.09 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.03 | +$0.07 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.04 | +$0.07 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.04 | +$0.07 |
AMBP has the edge over LCID on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
LCID Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$13.08 | -$2.57 |
| Q2 2026 | -$13.65 | -$2.35 |
| Q1 2026 | -$13.15 | -$1.25 |
| Q4 2025 | -$12.09 | +$0.41 |
| Q3 2025 | -$10.51 | +$2.49 |
| Q2 2025 | -$11.30 | +$0.40 |
| Q1 2025 | -$11.90 | +$0.40 |
| Q4 2024 | -$12.50 | +$1.10 |
LCID is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $13.08 per share over the past year, against $16.50 at its worst in mid-2023.
AMBP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5B | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.2B | +5.6% |
AMBP's revenue has grown year over year for 13 quarters in a row: $1.7B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.7% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.7% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.7% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.2% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.9% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.2% | +2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.2% | +5 points |
AMBP has the edge over LCID on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LCID Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $350.3M | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $405.3M | +56% |
| Q1 2026 | $282.5M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $522.7M | +123% |
| Q3 2025 | $336.6M | +68% |
| Q2 2025 | $259.4M | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $235M | +36% |
| Q4 2024 | $234.5M | +49% |
LCID has the edge over AMBP on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -245% | +35 points |
| Q2 2026 | -267% | +43 points |
| Q1 2026 | -350% | -56 points |
| Q4 2025 | -204% | +109 points |
| Q3 2025 | -280% | +105 points |
| Q2 2025 | -310% | +83 points |
| Q1 2025 | -294% | +128 points |
| Q4 2024 | -313% | +156 points |
LCID's operating margin was −245% last quarter, up 35 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
AMBP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $136M | +3.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $256M | +52% |
| Q1 2026 | -$405M | -$56M |
| Q4 2025 | $315M | -7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $131M | +3.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $168M | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | -$349M | +$51M |
| Q4 2024 | $339M | -6.9% |
AMBP has the edge over LCID on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
LCID Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1B | -$84.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.5B | -$463.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.4B | -$849M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.2B | -$417.1M |
| Q3 2025 | -$955.5M | -$333M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1B | -$271.6M |
| Q1 2025 | -$589.9M | +$125.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$824.8M | -$77.6M |
LCID has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$5.2B over the past year, against −$3.4B the year before.
AMBP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | -- |
| 3 years | 0% | +100K shares |
| 5 years | +6.2% | +34.9M shares |
| Available history | +21% | +104M shares |
AMBP has the edge over LCID on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $289M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
AMBP spent $289M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
LCID Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.3% | +12.5M shares |
| 1 year | +26% | +82.4M shares |
| 3 years | +73% | +166M shares |
LCID has 395M diluted shares, up 26% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | $2.2M |
| Q1 2020 | — |
AMBP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.9x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 6.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 6.0x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3x | High |
AMBP's net debt is about 5.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 5.5 years a year ago.
LCID Net Leverage
LCID's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
AMBP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 30.6 | Neutral |
AMBP's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
LCID Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.1 | Oversold |
LCID's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
AMBP PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | AMBP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 53x | 18x | 196% above |
| PE % | 73 | 55 | 18 pts above |
AMBP is trading at 53x earnings, a 196% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
LCID PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
LCID has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AMBP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $4.54 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $4.76 | 3.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.44 | 3.8% above |
| 100 week MA | $3.97 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $3.86 | 19% above |
AMBP has the edge over LCID on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
LCID Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.53 | 7.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.88 | 33% below |
| 50 week MA | $7.33 | 56% below |
| 100 week MA | $15.4 | 79% below |
| 200 week MA | $31.9 | 90% below |
LCID is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 90% below its 200-week average.
AMBP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $9.99 | $8.89 | -11% |
| 2022 | $8.89 | $4.75 | -47% |
| 2023 | $4.75 | $3.84 | -19% |
| 2024 | $3.84 | $3.02 | -21% |
| 2025 | $3.02 | $4.06 | +34% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.06 | $4.61 | +14% |
AMBP has the edge over LCID on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LCID Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $98.9 | $100.4 | +1.5% |
| 2021 | $100.4 | $376.4 | +275% |
| 2022 | $376.4 | $67.0 | -82% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $42.1 | -37% |
| 2024 | $42.1 | $32.0 | -24% |
| 2025 | $32.0 | $11.4 | -64% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.4 | $3.25 | -72% |
LCID has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 72% so far in 2026.