AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
AMBP has the edge over F overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
F
Ford Motor Company
F offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
AMBP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
AMBP's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
F Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
F's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
AMBP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $0.95 | -79% |
| Forward | 17x | $4.61 | — |
| Fair | 41x | $3.71 | -19% |
| Current | 53x | $4.61 | — |
| Expensive | 88x | $7.92 | +72% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AMBP's PE is in its expensive range at 53x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 17x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
F PE Valuation
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AMBP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AMBP, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
F Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect F's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AMBP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.28 | +208% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.09 | +$0.11 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.05 | +$0.08 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.01 | +$0.03 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.02 | +$0.02 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.02 | +$0.09 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.03 | +$0.07 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.04 | +$0.07 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.04 | +$0.07 |
AMBP has the edge over F on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
F Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.97 | -270% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.87 | -340% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.55 | -224% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.06 | -241% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.78 | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.25 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.46 | +35% |
F has swung to a loss: it lost $1.97 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
AMBP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5B | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.2B | +5.6% |
AMBP has the edge over F on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.7% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.7% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.7% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.2% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.9% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.2% | +2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.2% | +5 points |
AMBP has the edge over F on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
F Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $49.5B | -2% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.3B | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $43.3B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.9B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.5B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $50.2B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.7B | -5% |
| Q4 2024 | $48.2B | +4.9% |
F's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $49.5B last quarter, down 2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -25% | -28 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5% | +3.1 points |
F's operating margin was 2.9% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
AMBP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $136M | +3.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $256M | +52% |
| Q1 2026 | -$405M | -$56M |
| Q4 2025 | $315M | -7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $131M | +3.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $168M | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | -$349M | +$51M |
| Q4 2024 | $339M | -6.9% |
AMBP generated $302M in free cash flow over the past year, up 4.5% from the year before.
F Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | -54% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -157% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +108% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.3B | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.2B | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | +$2.6B |
| Q4 2024 | $530M | +169% |
F has the edge over AMBP on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AMBP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | -- |
| 3 years | 0% | +100K shares |
| 5 years | +6.2% | +34.9M shares |
| Available history | +21% | +104M shares |
AMBP has the edge over F on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $289M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
AMBP spent $289M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
F Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.2% | +89M shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +28M shares |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +26M shares |
| 5 years | +1% | +40M shares |
| Available history | +1.8% | +72M shares |
F has 4.1B diluted shares, up 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $311M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $150M |
F spent $311M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 107% from the year before.
AMBP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.9x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 6.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 6.0x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3x | High |
AMBP's net debt is about 5.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 5.5 years a year ago.
F Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
F has the edge over AMBP on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AMBP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 30.6 | Neutral |
AMBP's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
F Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.6 | Oversold |
F's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
AMBP PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | AMBP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 53x | 18x | 196% above |
| PE % | 73 | 55 | 18 pts above |
AMBP is trading at 53x earnings, a 196% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
F PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | F | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AMBP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $4.54 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $4.76 | 3.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.44 | 3.8% above |
| 100 week MA | $3.97 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $3.86 | 19% above |
AMBP has the edge over F on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
F Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.2 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.3 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.4 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 2% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.1 | 1.4% below |
F is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.4% below its 200-week average.
AMBP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $9.99 | $8.89 | -11% |
| 2022 | $8.89 | $4.75 | -47% |
| 2023 | $4.75 | $3.84 | -19% |
| 2024 | $3.84 | $3.02 | -21% |
| 2025 | $3.02 | $4.06 | +34% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.06 | $4.61 | +14% |
AMBP has the edge over F on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
F Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.36 | $8.86 | -5.3% |
| 2021 | $8.86 | $20.3 | +129% |
| 2022 | $20.3 | $11.4 | -44% |
| 2023 | $11.4 | $12.2 | +7.3% |
| 2024 | $12.2 | $10.0 | -18% |
| 2025 | $10.0 | $13.3 | +33% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $11.9 | -11% |
F's yearly returns have swung widely, from +129% in 2021 to −44% in 2022. It's down 11% so far in 2026.