AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
AMBP has the edge over EBAY overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
EBAY
eBay Inc.
EBAY offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
AMBP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
AMBP's revenue and profitability are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
EBAY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
EBAY's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
AMBP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $0.95 | -79% |
| Forward | 17x | $4.61 | — |
| Fair | 41x | $3.71 | -19% |
| Current | 53x | $4.61 | — |
| Expensive | 88x | $7.92 | +72% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AMBP has the edge over EBAY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
EBAY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.9x | $31.50 | -74% |
| Fair | 16x | $71.96 | -40% |
| Forward | 18x | $120 | — |
| Expensive | 22x | $99.04 | -18% |
| Current | 26x | $120 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
EBAY's PE is in its expensive range at 26x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
AMBP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AMBP, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
EBAY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for EBAY, with profitability holding steady.
AMBP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.28 | +208% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.09 | +$0.11 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.05 | +$0.08 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.01 | +$0.03 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.02 | +$0.02 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.02 | +$0.09 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.03 | +$0.07 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.04 | +$0.07 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.04 | +$0.07 |
AMBP has the edge over EBAY on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
EBAY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.63 | +45% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.57 | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.82 | +7.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.40 | +6% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.34 | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.55 | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.49 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.15 | -17% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.94 | -24% |
EBAY's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.57 over the past year, against $20.25 in late 2021.
AMBP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5B | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.2B | +5.6% |
AMBP has the edge over EBAY on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.7% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.7% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.7% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.2% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.9% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.2% | +2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.2% | +5 points |
AMBP's operating margin was 6.7% last quarter, up 0.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
EBAY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.2B | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.1B | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.8B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7B | +6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.6B | +1.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.6B | +0.7% |
EBAY's revenue has grown year over year for 15 quarters in a row: $3.2B last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 22% | +3.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 20% | -4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | -0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | -2.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 24% | -0.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 21% | +5.1 points |
EBAY has the edge over AMBP on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AMBP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $136M | +3.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $256M | +52% |
| Q1 2026 | -$405M | -$56M |
| Q4 2025 | $315M | -7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $131M | +3.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $168M | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | -$349M | +$51M |
| Q4 2024 | $339M | -6.9% |
AMBP generated $302M in free cash flow over the past year, up 4.5% from the year before.
EBAY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $749M | -6.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $300M | +$741M |
| Q1 2026 | $897M | +39% |
| Q4 2025 | $466M | -17% |
| Q3 2025 | $803M | +24% |
| Q2 2025 | -$441M | -259% |
| Q1 2025 | $644M | +36% |
| Q4 2024 | $560M | +$564M |
EBAY has the edge over AMBP on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AMBP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | -- |
| 3 years | 0% | +100K shares |
| 5 years | +6.2% | +34.9M shares |
| Available history | +21% | +104M shares |
AMBP has 598M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $289M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
AMBP spent $289M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
EBAY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -3% | -14M shares |
| 3 years | -15% | -79M shares |
| 5 years | -31% | -205M shares |
| Available history | -44% | -359M shares |
EBAY has the edge over AMBP on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $664M |
| Q2 2026 | $323M |
| Q1 2026 | $486M |
| Q4 2025 | $635M |
| Q3 2025 | $626M |
| Q2 2025 | $624M |
| Q1 2025 | $615M |
| Q4 2024 | $911M |
EBAY spent $2.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 24% from the year before.
AMBP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.9x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 6.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 6.0x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3x | High |
AMBP's net debt is about 5.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 5.5 years a year ago.
EBAY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.9x | Healthy |
EBAY has the edge over AMBP on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AMBP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 30.6 | Neutral |
AMBP's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
EBAY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 80.0 | Overbought |
EBAY's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 80 (overbought).
AMBP PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | AMBP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 53x | 18x | 196% above |
| PE % | 73 | 55 | 18 pts above |
AMBP is trading at 53x earnings, a 196% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
EBAY PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | EBAY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 18x | 46% above |
| PE % | 91 | 47 | 44 pts above |
EBAY has the edge over AMBP on valuation relative to its sector.
AMBP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $4.54 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $4.76 | 3.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.44 | 3.8% above |
| 100 week MA | $3.97 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $3.86 | 19% above |
AMBP's trend is mixed: it's above four of its five weekly moving averages, and 19% above its 200-week average.
EBAY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $116.5 | 3.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $112.4 | 6.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $102.6 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $89.8 | 34% above |
| 200 week MA | $69.5 | 73% above |
EBAY has the edge over AMBP on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AMBP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $9.99 | $8.89 | -11% |
| 2022 | $8.89 | $4.75 | -47% |
| 2023 | $4.75 | $3.84 | -19% |
| 2024 | $3.84 | $3.02 | -21% |
| 2025 | $3.02 | $4.06 | +34% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.06 | $4.61 | +14% |
AMBP has finished lower in four of the last five years. It's up 14% so far in 2026.
EBAY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $36.1 | $50.1 | +39% |
| 2021 | $50.1 | $64.9 | +29% |
| 2022 | $64.9 | $40.2 | -38% |
| 2023 | $40.2 | $43.6 | +8.6% |
| 2024 | $43.6 | $62.8 | +44% |
| 2025 | $62.8 | $85.2 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $85.2 | $120.1 | +41% |
EBAY has the edge over AMBP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.