ALVO

Alvotech

47
Fundamentals31/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential61/ 100
Risk potential34/ 100

ALVO's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

78
Fundamentals85/ 100
Valuation62/ 100
Upside potential72/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

LLY has the edge over ALVO overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.

ALVO Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Weak
Under pressure
Weak
Weak

ALVO's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently under pressure.

LLY Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Strong
Healthy

LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

ALVO PE Valuation

ALVO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 19x next year's earnings.

LLY PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE37x74x111x147x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE37x74x111x147x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap27x$845-41%
Forward30x$1,427—
Current46x$1,427—
Fair48x$1,466+2.7%
Expensive85x$2,612+83%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

ALVO Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Returning to profit
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect ALVO to return to profit, with revenue growing.

LLY Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.

ALVO Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+54%$7.17
Downside-34%$3.06

Calculated from the latest close: $4.67 on Nov 12.

ALVO trails LLY on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

LLY Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+39%$1,988.49
Downside-15%$1,209.08

Calculated from the latest close: $1,427.28 on Nov 12.

LLY has a better modeled risk to reward balance than ALVO, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

ALVO Earnings Per Share

Q3 2023: $-2.21Q3 2024: $-1.65Q4 2024: $-0.83Q1 2025: $0.34Q2 2025: $0.19Q3 2025: $0.21Q4 2025: $0.00Q1 2026: $-0.34Q2 2026: $-0.63Forward: $0.25
Q3 2023: $-2.21Q3 2024: $-1.65Q4 2024: $-0.83Q1 2025: $0.34Q2 2025: $0.19Q3 2025: $0.21Q4 2025: $0.00Q1 2026: $-0.34Q2 2026: $-0.63Forward: $0.25
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$0.25—
Q2 2026-$0.63-432%
Q1 2026-$0.34-200%
Q4 2025$0.00+$0.83
Q3 2025$0.21+$1.86
Q3 2024-$1.65+$0.56
Q1 2021-$4.90-$4.07
Q4 2020-$0.69+$0.19

ALVO has swung to a loss: it lost $0.63 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.

LLY Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.80Q1 2024: $6.79Q2 2024: $8.12Q3 2024: $9.25Q4 2024: $11.71Q1 2025: $12.29Q2 2025: $15.30Q3 2025: $20.44Q4 2025: $22.95Q1 2026: $28.15Q2 2026: $29.80Q3 2026: $30.81Forward: $46.82
Q4 2023: $5.80Q1 2024: $6.79Q2 2024: $8.12Q3 2024: $9.25Q4 2024: $11.71Q1 2025: $12.29Q2 2025: $15.30Q3 2025: $20.44Q4 2025: $22.95Q1 2026: $28.15Q2 2026: $29.80Q3 2026: $30.81Forward: $46.82
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$46.82+52%
Q3 2026$30.81+51%
Q2 2026$29.80+95%
Q1 2026$28.15+129%
Q4 2025$22.95+96%
Q3 2025$20.44+121%
Q2 2025$15.30+88%
Q1 2025$12.29+81%
Q4 2024$11.71+102%

LLY has the edge over ALVO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

ALVO Quarterly Revenue

Q3 2023: $18MQ4 2023: $53MQ1 2024: $37MQ2 2024: $199MQ3 2024: $103MQ4 2024: $151MQ1 2025: $133MQ2 2025: $173MQ3 2025: $114MQ4 2025: $166MQ1 2026: $106MQ2 2026: $106M
Q3 2023: $18MQ4 2023: $53MQ1 2024: $37MQ2 2024: $199MQ3 2024: $103MQ4 2024: $151MQ1 2025: $133MQ2 2025: $173MQ3 2025: $114MQ4 2025: $166MQ1 2026: $106MQ2 2026: $106M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2026$105.8M-39%
Q1 2026$105.9M-20%
Q4 2025$166.4M+10%
Q3 2025$114M+11%
Q2 2025$173.2M-13%
Q1 2025$132.8M+260%
Q4 2024$151.2M+183%
Q3 2024$102.9M+478%

ALVO's revenue has slid since its 2024 peak: $106M last quarter, down 39% from the same quarter a year ago.

LLY Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $9.4BQ1 2024: $8.8BQ2 2024: $11.3BQ3 2024: $11.4BQ4 2024: $13.5BQ1 2025: $12.7BQ2 2025: $15.6BQ3 2025: $17.6BQ4 2025: $19.3BQ1 2026: $19.8BQ2 2026: $23BQ3 2026: $24.4B
Q4 2023: $9.4BQ1 2024: $8.8BQ2 2024: $11.3BQ3 2024: $11.4BQ4 2024: $13.5BQ1 2025: $12.7BQ2 2025: $15.6BQ3 2025: $17.6BQ4 2025: $19.3BQ1 2026: $19.8BQ2 2026: $23BQ3 2026: $24.4B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$24.4B+39%
Q2 2026$23B+48%
Q1 2026$19.8B+56%
Q4 2025$19.3B+43%
Q3 2025$17.6B+54%
Q2 2025$15.6B+38%
Q1 2025$12.7B+45%
Q4 2024$13.5B+45%

LLY has the edge over ALVO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

ALVO Free Cash Flow

Q3 2023: −$124MQ4 2023: −$78MQ1 2024: −$80MQ2 2024: −$58MQ3 2024: −$85MQ4 2024: −$70MQ1 2025: −$11MQ2 2025: $42MQ3 2025: −$75MQ4 2025: −$71MQ1 2026: −$107MQ2 2026: −$48M
Q3 2023: −$124MQ4 2023: −$78MQ1 2024: −$80MQ2 2024: −$58MQ3 2024: −$85MQ4 2024: −$70MQ1 2025: −$11MQ2 2025: $42MQ3 2025: −$75MQ4 2025: −$71MQ1 2026: −$107MQ2 2026: −$48M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q2 2026-$47.7M-213%
Q1 2026-$106.6M-$95.8M
Q4 2025-$71.5M-$1.2M
Q3 2025-$74.5M+$11M
Q2 2025$42.1M+$99.8M
Q1 2025-$10.8M+$69.2M
Q4 2024-$70.3M+$7.4M
Q3 2024-$85.5M+$38.4M

ALVO has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$300M over the past year, against −$124M the year before.

LLY Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: $180MQ2 2024: $241MQ3 2024: $2.4BQ4 2024: $978MQ1 2025: $156MQ2 2025: $1.4BQ3 2025: $6.7BQ4 2025: $678MQ1 2026: $3BQ2 2026: $7.8BQ3 2026: $8.2B
Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: $180MQ2 2024: $241MQ3 2024: $2.4BQ4 2024: $978MQ1 2025: $156MQ2 2025: $1.4BQ3 2025: $6.7BQ4 2025: $678MQ1 2026: $3BQ2 2026: $7.8BQ3 2026: $8.2B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$8.2B+22%
Q2 2026$7.8B+458%
Q1 2026$3B+1826%
Q4 2025$677.9M-31%
Q3 2025$6.7B+186%
Q2 2025$1.4B+476%
Q1 2025$156.1M-13%
Q4 2024$977.8M+$2.4B

LLY has the edge over ALVO on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

ALVO Total Shares

Q3 2023: 267MQ4 2023: 267MQ1 2024: 267MQ2 2024: 259MQ3 2024: 280MQ4 2024: 302MQ1 2025: 313MQ2 2025: 313MQ3 2025: 300MQ4 2025: 279MQ1 2026: 330MQ2 2026: 357M
Q3 2023: 267MQ4 2023: 267MQ1 2024: 267MQ2 2024: 259MQ3 2024: 280MQ4 2024: 302MQ1 2025: 313MQ2 2025: 313MQ3 2025: 300MQ4 2025: 279MQ1 2026: 330MQ2 2026: 357M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+8%+26.5M shares
1 year+14%+43.4M shares
3 years+56%+128M shares
5 years+1042%+326M shares
Available history+46%+113M shares

ALVO has 357M diluted shares, up 14% from a year ago.

LLY Total Shares

Q4 2023: 903MQ1 2024: 904MQ2 2024: 904MQ3 2024: 905MQ4 2024: 904MQ1 2025: 901MQ2 2025: 900MQ3 2025: 899MQ4 2025: 899MQ1 2026: 896MQ2 2026: 894MQ3 2026: 893M
Q4 2023: 903MQ1 2024: 904MQ2 2024: 904MQ3 2024: 905MQ4 2024: 904MQ1 2025: 901MQ2 2025: 900MQ3 2025: 899MQ4 2025: 899MQ1 2026: 896MQ2 2026: 894MQ3 2026: 893M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%-300K shares
1 year-0.6%-5.4M shares
3 years-0.7%-6.4M shares
5 years-1.9%-17.4M shares
Available history-4.5%-42.3M shares

LLY has the edge over ALVO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

ALVO Net Leverage

Q1 2025: 8.6xQ2 2025: 5.4xQ3 2025: 11.3xQ4 2025: 8.8xQ1 2026: 23.3xQ2 2026: 200.4x
Q1 2025: 8.6xQ2 2025: 5.4xQ3 2025: 11.3xQ4 2025: 8.8xQ1 2026: 23.3xQ2 2026: 200.4x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 2026200.4xHigh
Q1 202623.3xHigh
Q4 20258.8xHigh
Q3 202511.3xHigh
Q2 20255.4xHigh
Q1 20258.6xHigh
Q3 20228.1xHigh

ALVO's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 5.4 years a year ago.

LLY Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 2.6xQ2 2024: 2.4xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 2.1xQ1 2025: 2.3xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 1.3xQ4 2025: 1.3xQ1 2026: 1.2xQ2 2026: 1.3xQ3 2026: 1.2x
Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 2.6xQ2 2024: 2.4xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 2.1xQ1 2025: 2.3xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 1.3xQ4 2025: 1.3xQ1 2026: 1.2xQ2 2026: 1.3xQ3 2026: 1.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20261.2xHealthy
Q2 20261.3xHealthy
Q1 20261.2xHealthy
Q4 20251.3xHealthy
Q3 20251.3xHealthy
Q2 20252.0xHealthy
Q1 20252.3xModerate
Q4 20242.1xModerate

LLY has the edge over ALVO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

ALVO Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI49.9Neutral
Stochastic40.7Neutral

ALVO's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).

LLY Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI68.3Neutral
Stochastic84.1Overbought

LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).

ALVO PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricALVOSector medianRelative
PEN/A26x—

ALVO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricLLYSector medianRelative
PE46x26x79% above
PE %482919 pts above

LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.

ALVO Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$5.098.3% below
20 week MA$4.601.5% above
50 week MA$4.337.9% above
100 week MA$6.9633% below
200 week MA$9.2850% below

ALVO's trend is mixed: it's above two of its five weekly moving averages, and 50% below its 200-week average.

LLY Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$1,279.412% above
20 week MA$1,218.817% above
50 week MA$1,102.229% above
100 week MA$954.150% above
200 week MA$797.579% above

LLY has the edge over ALVO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

ALVO Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2022$9.70$10.0+3.1%
2023$10.0$11.5+15%
2024$11.5$12.7+10%
2025$12.7$5.26-58%
2026 YTD$5.26$4.67-11%

ALVO has finished higher in three of the last four years. It's down 11% so far in 2026.

LLY Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$131.5$166.7+27%
2021$166.7$273.1+64%
2022$273.1$367.9+35%
2023$367.9$582.9+58%
2024$582.9$783.2+34%
2025$783.2$1,077.8+38%
2026 YTD$1,077.8$1,427.3+32%

LLY has the edge over ALVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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