ALRS
Alerus Financial Corporation
ALRS's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over ALRS overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
ALRS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
ALRS's revenue and profitability are currently stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like ALRS.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
ALRS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.5x | $11.26 | -67% |
| Fair | 12x | $13.75 | -60% |
| Forward | 12x | $34.27 | — |
| Current | 29x | $34.27 | — |
| Expensive | 35x | $41.75 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ALRS's PE is in its expensive range at 29x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over ALRS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ALRS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ALRS, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
ALRS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.86 | +140% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.19 | -37% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.08 | -28% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.05 | +1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.68 | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.89 | +1012% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.50 | +317% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.03 | +106% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.83 | +43% |
ALRS's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.19 over the past year, against $3.14 in mid-2021.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over ALRS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ALRS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $81.1M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $80.7M | +7.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $75.8M | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.2M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $72.6M | +43% |
| Q2 2025 | $74.8M | +46% |
| Q1 2025 | $68.8M | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $72.2M | +223% |
ALRS's revenue is down over the past year, though its latest quarter was up: $81M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 31% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 40% | +14 points |
| Q4 2025 | -527% | -527 points |
| Q3 2025 | 30% | +17 points |
| Q2 2025 | 35% | +19 points |
| Q1 2025 | 26% | +7.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4% | +79 points |
ALRS's operating margin was 31% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over ALRS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ALRS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $52.7M | +74% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.9M | +137% |
| Q1 2026 | $25.8M | +356% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.3M | +241% |
| Q3 2025 | $30.3M | +87% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.6M | +$22.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $5.7M | -49% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.5M | +$7.5M |
ALRS has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ALRS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -234K shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -552K shares |
| 3 years | +25% | +5.1M shares |
| 5 years | +44% | +7.7M shares |
| Available history | +67% | +10.1M shares |
ALRS has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $7.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $6.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $219,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $342,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $49,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $127,000 |
| Q4 2024 | $44,000 |
ALRS spent $22M buying back its own shares over the past year, more than ten times what it spent the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
ALRS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.9x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.8x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 7.9x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 4.6x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.0x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.2x | High |
ALRS has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ALRS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 67.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.9 | Neutral |
ALRS's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
ALRS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | ALRS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 29x | 13x | 121% above |
| PE % | 76 | 63 | 13 pts above |
ALRS is trading at 29x earnings, a 121% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over ALRS on valuation relative to its sector.
ALRS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $32.6 | 5.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $32.7 | 4.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $28.3 | 21% above |
| 100 week MA | $24.5 | 40% above |
| 200 week MA | $22.2 | 55% above |
ALRS has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
ALRS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $22.8 | $27.1 | +19% |
| 2021 | $27.1 | $29.5 | +8.9% |
| 2022 | $29.5 | $23.3 | -21% |
| 2023 | $23.3 | $22.4 | -3.9% |
| 2024 | $22.4 | $19.2 | -14% |
| 2025 | $19.2 | $21.8 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $21.8 | $34.3 | +57% |
ALRS has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.