ALL
The Allstate Corporation
ALL offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has a slight edge over ALL overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
ALL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
ALL's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like ALL.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
ALL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 6x | $267 | — |
| Cheap | 6.2x | $274 | +2.6% |
| Forward | 9.1x | $267 | — |
| Fair | 10x | $450 | +69% |
| Expensive | 16x | $726 | +172% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ALL has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
ALL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weakening | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ALL's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over ALL on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
ALL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.22 | -34% |
| Q3 2026 | $44.16 | +43% |
| Q2 2026 | $50.08 | +135% |
| Q1 2026 | $45.33 | +210% |
| Q4 2025 | $38.19 | +125% |
| Q3 2025 | $30.89 | +100% |
| Q2 2025 | $21.27 | +94% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.64 | +223% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.99 | +$18.23 |
ALL's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $44.16 over the past year, up 43% from the year before, and higher year over year for 12 quarters in a row.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
ALL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $17.3B | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $18.6B | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.9B | +3% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.3B | +5.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.3B | +3.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | +5.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $16.5B | +7.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.5B | +11% |
ALL's revenue has grown year over year for 17 quarters in a row: $17.3B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over ALL on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ALL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.5B | +88% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.9B | +75% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.2B | +3.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.9B | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +43% |
ALL has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ALL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.5% | -3.8M shares |
| 1 year | -4.2% | -11.1M shares |
| 3 years | -2.5% | -6.5M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -42.6M shares |
| Available history | -23% | -78.2M shares |
ALL has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $614M |
| Q4 2025 | $434M |
| Q3 2025 | $360M |
| Q2 2025 | $340M |
| Q1 2025 | $99M |
| Q4 2024 | $2M |
ALL spent $3.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, about four times what it spent the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
ALL Net Leverage
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ALL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 67.9 | Neutral |
ALL's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
ALL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | ALL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6x | 13x | 54% below |
| PE % | 15 | 63 | 48 pts below |
ALL has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
ALL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $245.4 | 8.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $252.3 | 5.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $227.0 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $213.2 | 25% above |
| 200 week MA | $179.8 | 48% above |
ALL has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
ALL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $111.9 | $107.2 | -4.2% |
| 2021 | $107.2 | $114.1 | +6.5% |
| 2022 | $114.1 | $136.4 | +19% |
| 2023 | $136.4 | $140.0 | +2.6% |
| 2024 | $140.0 | $193.8 | +38% |
| 2025 | $193.8 | $207.8 | +7.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $207.8 | $266.7 | +28% |
ALL has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.