ALHC
Alignment Healthcare, Inc.
ALHC has the edge over NVO overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ALHC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy |
ALHC's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its cash flow is under pressure.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
ALHC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 42x | $5.83 | -22% |
| Current | 54x | $7.50 | — |
| Fair | 72x | $10.02 | +34% |
| Expensive | 199x | $27.91 | +272% |
| Forward | 1,075x | $7.50 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ALHC's PE is 54x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO has the edge over ALHC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ALHC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
ALHC has the edge over NVO on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ALHC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.01 | -95% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.14 | +$0.25 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.20 | +$0.47 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.10 | +$0.57 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.00 | +$0.67 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.11 | +$0.66 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.27 | +$0.55 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.47 | +$0.37 |
ALHC has returned to profit: it earned $0.14 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $3.89 over the past year, up 4.9% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since late 2020.
ALHC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +37% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +44% |
| Q3 2025 | $993.7M | +44% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | +49% |
| Q1 2025 | $926.9M | +47% |
| Q4 2024 | $701.2M | +51% |
ALHC has the edge over NVO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.3% | +1.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | -1% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8% | +3.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.2% | +4.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | -0.6% | +6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -3.2% | +5.8 points |
ALHC's operating margin was −0.3% last quarter, down 1.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO's revenue is growing: $11.7B last quarter, up 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over ALHC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ALHC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $38.6M | -72% |
| Q2 2026 | -$27.5M | -230% |
| Q1 2026 | $121.3M | +1350% |
| Q4 2025 | -$55.4M | -$37.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $139.1M | +722% |
| Q2 2025 | $21.1M | +79% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.4M | +$25.7M |
| Q4 2024 | -$18M | +$169.5M |
ALHC generated $77M in free cash flow over the past year, down 49% from the year before.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $7.3B over the past year.
ALHC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -3% | -6.5M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -371K shares |
| 3 years | +11% | +19.9M shares |
| 5 years | +37% | +56.4M shares |
ALHC has 209M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | $1.5M |
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has the edge over ALHC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
ALHC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -5.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -4.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -5.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -5.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -9.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -34.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2020 | -5.6x | Net Cash |
ALHC has the edge over NVO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
ALHC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 29.7 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 13.9 | Oversold |
ALHC's weekly RSI is 30 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 14 (oversold).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
ALHC PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | ALHC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 54x | 26x | 107% above |
| PE % | 29 | 36 | 7 pts below |
ALHC is trading at 54x earnings, a 107% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x, though its earnings don't support one.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO has the edge over ALHC on valuation relative to its sector.
ALHC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $7.77 | 3.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $12.5 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $16.7 | 55% below |
| 100 week MA | $16.0 | 53% below |
| 200 week MA | $11.9 | 37% below |
ALHC is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 37% below its 200-week average.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has the edge over ALHC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ALHC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $17.3 | $13.7 | -21% |
| 2022 | $13.7 | $11.5 | -16% |
| 2023 | $11.5 | $8.61 | -25% |
| 2024 | $8.61 | $10.8 | +26% |
| 2025 | $10.8 | $18.8 | +74% |
| 2026 YTD | $18.8 | $7.50 | -60% |
ALHC has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 60% so far in 2026.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has the edge over ALHC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.