ALHC
Alignment Healthcare, Inc.
ALHC's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over ALHC overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
ALHC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy |
ALHC's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its cash flow is under pressure.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ALHC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 42x | $5.83 | -22% |
| Current | 54x | $7.50 | — |
| Fair | 72x | $10.02 | +34% |
| Expensive | 199x | $27.91 | +272% |
| Forward | 1,075x | $7.50 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ALHC has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
ALHC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ALHC to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over ALHC on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and profitability expectations.
ALHC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.01 | -95% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.14 | +$0.25 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.20 | +$0.47 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.10 | +$0.57 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.00 | +$0.67 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.11 | +$0.66 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.27 | +$0.55 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.47 | +$0.37 |
ALHC has returned to profit: it earned $0.14 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $30.81 over the past year, up 51% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
ALHC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +37% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +44% |
| Q3 2025 | $993.7M | +44% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | +49% |
| Q1 2025 | $926.9M | +47% |
| Q4 2024 | $701.2M | +51% |
ALHC's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $1.4B last quarter, up 37% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.3% | +1.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | -1% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8% | +3.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.2% | +4.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | -0.6% | +6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -3.2% | +5.8 points |
ALHC's operating margin was −0.3% last quarter, down 1.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over ALHC on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over ALHC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ALHC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $38.6M | -72% |
| Q2 2026 | -$27.5M | -230% |
| Q1 2026 | $121.3M | +1350% |
| Q4 2025 | -$55.4M | -$37.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $139.1M | +722% |
| Q2 2025 | $21.1M | +79% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.4M | +$25.7M |
| Q4 2024 | -$18M | +$169.5M |
ALHC generated $77M in free cash flow over the past year, down 49% from the year before.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over ALHC on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ALHC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -3% | -6.5M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -371K shares |
| 3 years | +11% | +19.9M shares |
| 5 years | +37% | +56.4M shares |
ALHC has 209M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | $1.5M |
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over ALHC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ALHC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -5.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -4.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -5.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -5.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -9.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -34.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2020 | -5.6x | Net Cash |
ALHC has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
ALHC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 29.7 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 13.9 | Oversold |
ALHC's weekly RSI is 30 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 14 (oversold).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
ALHC PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | ALHC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 54x | 26x | 107% above |
| PE % | 29 | 36 | 7 pts below |
ALHC is trading at 54x earnings, a 107% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x, though its earnings don't support one.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY has the edge over ALHC on valuation relative to its sector.
ALHC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $7.77 | 3.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $12.5 | 40% below |
| 50 week MA | $16.7 | 55% below |
| 100 week MA | $16.0 | 53% below |
| 200 week MA | $11.9 | 37% below |
ALHC is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 37% below its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over ALHC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ALHC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $17.3 | $13.7 | -21% |
| 2022 | $13.7 | $11.5 | -16% |
| 2023 | $11.5 | $8.61 | -25% |
| 2024 | $8.61 | $10.8 | +26% |
| 2025 | $10.8 | $18.8 | +74% |
| 2026 YTD | $18.8 | $7.50 | -60% |
ALHC has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 60% so far in 2026.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over ALHC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.