ALAB
Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock
ALAB has the edge over MSFT overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ALAB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
ALAB's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ALAB PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 33x | $228 | — |
| Cheap | 72x | $182 | -20% |
| Current | 91x | $228 | — |
| Fair | 108x | $272 | +19% |
| Expensive | 172x | $431 | +89% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ALAB's PE is in its fair range at 91x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 33x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over ALAB in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ALAB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
ALAB has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
ALAB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.88 | +174% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.51 | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.02 | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.48 | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.22 | +$1.86 |
| Q3 2025 | $2.20 | +$3.98 |
| Q2 2025 | $1.65 | +$3.40 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.31 | +$3.16 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.64 | -$0.43 |
ALAB earned $2.51 per share over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over ALAB on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ALAB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $584.9M | +154% |
| Q2 2026 | $392.4M | +104% |
| Q1 2026 | $308.4M | +93% |
| Q4 2025 | $270.6M | +92% |
| Q3 2025 | $230.6M | +104% |
| Q2 2025 | $191.9M | +150% |
| Q1 2025 | $159.4M | +144% |
| Q4 2024 | $141.1M | +179% |
ALAB has the edge over MSFT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 31% | +6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 23% | +2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 20% | +13 points |
| Q4 2025 | 25% | +25 points |
| Q3 2025 | 24% | +32 points |
| Q2 2025 | 21% | +52 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.1% | +134 points |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1% | -18 points |
ALAB's operating margin was 31% last quarter, up 6.6 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2022.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $92.3B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over ALAB on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ALAB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $133.9M | +103% |
| Q2 2026 | $67.2M | -50% |
| Q1 2026 | $67M | +1023% |
| Q4 2025 | $76.6M | +216% |
| Q3 2025 | $65.9M | +41% |
| Q2 2025 | $133.3M | +328% |
| Q1 2025 | $6M | +2516% |
| Q4 2024 | $24.3M | +81% |
ALAB has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
ALAB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +737K shares |
| 1 year | +1.9% | +3.4M shares |
| 3 years | +21% | +31.6M shares |
ALAB has 184M diluted shares, up 1.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | $210,000 |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | $118,000 |
| Q1 2023 | — |
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over ALAB on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
ALAB Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
ALAB has the edge over MSFT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
ALAB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.4 | Oversold |
ALAB's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
ALAB PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ALAB | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 91x | 28x | 226% above |
| PE % | 33 | 17 | 16 pts above |
ALAB is trading at 91x earnings, a 226% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT has the edge over ALAB on valuation relative to its sector.
ALAB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $284.7 | 20% below |
| 20 week MA | $306.9 | 26% below |
| 50 week MA | $241.4 | 5.6% below |
| 100 week MA | $182.7 | 25% above |
MSFT has stronger trend alignment. ALAB is above 1 of 4 weekly averages versus MSFT above 4 of 5.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT's trend is up, with a small recent dip: it's below only its 8-week average, and 27% above its 200-week average.
ALAB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $70.0 | $141.5 | +102% |
| 2025 | $141.5 | $167.3 | +18% |
| 2026 YTD | $167.3 | $227.8 | +36% |
ALAB has the edge over MSFT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 7.2% so far in 2026.