AKBA
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.
AKBA offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO has the edge over AKBA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
AKBA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
AKBA's balance sheet is currently strong, and its cash flow is stable, but its revenue and profitability are weak.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
AKBA PE Valuation
AKBA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO's PE is 10x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AKBA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AKBA's losses to grow, with revenue declining. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
NVO has the edge over AKBA on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
AKBA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.16 | -$0.09 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.11 | +$0.06 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.08 | +$0.13 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.02 | +$0.31 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.07 | +$0.15 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.17 | +$0.03 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.21 | +$0.01 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.33 | -$0.06 |
AKBA lost $0.16 per share over the past year, and its loss has widened in each of the last three quarters.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO has the edge over AKBA on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AKBA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $36.9M | -37% |
| Q2 2026 | $49.1M | -21% |
| Q1 2026 | $53.5M | -6.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $57.6M | +24% |
| Q3 2025 | $58.8M | +57% |
| Q2 2025 | $62.5M | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $57.3M | +76% |
| Q4 2024 | $46.5M | -17% |
AKBA's revenue has slid since its 2022 peak: $37M last quarter, down 37% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -31% | -39 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | -35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.8% | -32 points |
| Q4 2025 | -15% | +16 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.6% | +41 points |
| Q2 2025 | 23% | +43 points |
| Q1 2025 | 24% | +69 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | -33 points |
AKBA's operating margin was −31% last quarter, down 39 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO has the edge over AKBA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over AKBA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AKBA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.6M | -94% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.4M | -89% |
| Q1 2026 | -$21.3M | -$7.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $31.1M | +$35.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $28M | +$34.7M |
| Q1 2025 | -$13.6M | +$5.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.5M | -$2.2M |
| Q3 2024 | -$6.7M | +$470K |
AKBA has burned cash in most quarters: $14M over the past year, down 57% from the year before.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO has the edge over AKBA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AKBA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.7% | +7.3M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +2.5M shares |
| 3 years | +47% | +88.6M shares |
| 5 years | +59% | +103M shares |
| Available history | +132% | +158M shares |
AKBA has 277M diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has the edge over AKBA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
AKBA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -17.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -5.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -4.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -10.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
AKBA has the edge over NVO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
AKBA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 33.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 14.7 | Oversold |
AKBA's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 15 (oversold).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
AKBA PE vs Healthcare Sector
AKBA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO is trading at 10x earnings, a 60% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x, though its earnings don't support one.
AKBA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $0.68 | 26% below |
| 20 week MA | $0.92 | 46% below |
| 50 week MA | $1.16 | 57% below |
| 100 week MA | $1.88 | 73% below |
| 200 week MA | $1.56 | 68% below |
AKBA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 68% below its 200-week average.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has the edge over AKBA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AKBA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $6.52 | $2.92 | -55% |
| 2021 | $2.92 | $2.53 | -13% |
| 2022 | $2.53 | $0.43 | -83% |
| 2023 | $0.43 | $1.24 | +188% |
| 2024 | $1.24 | $1.95 | +57% |
| 2025 | $1.95 | $1.66 | -15% |
| 2026 YTD | $1.66 | $0.50 | -70% |
AKBA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +188% in 2023 to −83% in 2022. It's down 70% so far in 2026.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has the edge over AKBA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.