AI
C3.ai, Inc.
AI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over AI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
AI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AI's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AI PE Valuation
AI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
AI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect AI's losses to shrink, with revenue holding steady.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
AI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$3.09 | -$0.49 |
| Q2 2026 | -$3.35 | -$1.11 |
| Q1 2026 | -$3.15 | -$0.92 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.83 | -$0.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.60 | -$0.32 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.24 | +$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.23 | +$0.10 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.21 | +$0.09 |
AI lost $3.09 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over AI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $52.4M | -25% |
| Q2 2026 | $51.6M | -53% |
| Q1 2026 | $53.3M | -46% |
| Q4 2025 | $75.1M | -20% |
| Q3 2025 | $70.3M | -19% |
| Q2 2025 | $108.7M | +26% |
| Q1 2025 | $98.8M | +26% |
| Q4 2024 | $94.3M | +29% |
AI's revenue has slid since its 2025 peak: $52M last quarter, down 25% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -188% | -10 points |
| Q2 2026 | -235% | -153 points |
| Q1 2026 | -264% | -175 points |
| Q4 2025 | -149% | -69 points |
| Q3 2025 | -178% | -94 points |
| Q2 2025 | -82% | +13 points |
| Q1 2025 | -89% | +17 points |
| Q4 2024 | -80% | +29 points |
AI's operating margin was −188% last quarter, down 10 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over AI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over AI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.1M | +$36.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$54.8M | -630% |
| Q1 2026 | -$56.2M | -$33.8M |
| Q4 2025 | -$46.9M | -$7.4M |
| Q3 2025 | -$34.3M | -582% |
| Q2 2025 | $10.3M | -45% |
| Q1 2025 | -$22.4M | +$22.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$39.5M | +$14.4M |
AI has burned cash in most quarters: −$156M over the past year, against −$86M the year before.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT has the edge over AI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +10% | +14.5M shares |
| 1 year | +14% | +19.6M shares |
| 3 years | +34% | +39.3M shares |
| 5 years | +52% | +52.8M shares |
AI has 155M diluted shares, up 14% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q2 2022 | $15M |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over AI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
AI Net Leverage
AI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
AI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 70.9 | Neutral |
AI's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 71 (neutral).
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
AI PE vs Technology Sector
AI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $11.6 | 4.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $10.5 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $16.9 | 29% below |
| 200 week MA | $22.3 | 46% below |
AI has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 46% below its 200-week average.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over AI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $119.6 | $161.0 | +35% |
| 2021 | $161.0 | $34.3 | -79% |
| 2022 | $34.3 | $10.9 | -68% |
| 2023 | $10.9 | $28.7 | +163% |
| 2024 | $28.7 | $35.7 | +24% |
| 2025 | $35.7 | $14.0 | -61% |
| 2026 YTD | $14.0 | $12.1 | -14% |
AI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +163% in 2023 to −79% in 2021. It's down 14% so far in 2026.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over AI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.