AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
AGO has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
SOFI
SoFi Technologies, Inc.
SOFI has the edge over AGO overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
AGO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AGO's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AGO.
SOFI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SOFI's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SOFI.
AGO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.2x | $51.41 | -30% |
| Fair | 10x | $70.70 | -3.4% |
| Current | 10x | $73.16 | — |
| Forward | 11x | $73.16 | — |
| Expensive | 14x | $101 | +38% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AGO's PE is in its fair range at 10x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 11x.
SOFI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $15.63 | — |
| Current | 28x | $15.63 | — |
| Cheap | 33x | $18.24 | +17% |
| Fair | 43x | $23.82 | +52% |
| Expensive | 53x | $29.74 | +90% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SOFI has the edge over AGO in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
AGO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect AGO's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
SOFI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
SOFI has the edge over AGO on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
AGO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.76 | -4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.10 | -12% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.53 | -17% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.73 | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.26 | +49% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.10 | -37% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.09 | -25% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.42 | -34% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.87 | -44% |
AGO's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $7.10 over the past year, against $12.85 in early 2024.
SOFI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.82 | +47% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.56 | 0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.49 | -2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.45 | +4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.39 | 0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.56 | +367% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.50 | +$0.72 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.43 | +$0.72 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.39 | +$0.75 |
SOFI has the edge over AGO on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AGO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $214M | +3.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $195M | -31% |
| Q1 2026 | $261M | -24% |
| Q4 2025 | $277M | +78% |
| Q3 2025 | $207M | -23% |
| Q2 2025 | $281M | +39% |
| Q1 2025 | $345M | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $156M | -52% |
AGO's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $214M last quarter, up 3.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 46% | -19 points |
| Q2 2026 | 25% | -22 points |
| Q1 2026 | 25% | -42 points |
| Q4 2025 | 60% | +40 points |
| Q3 2025 | 65% | -17 points |
| Q2 2025 | 47% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 66% | +7.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | -43 points |
AGO has the edge over SOFI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SOFI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +44% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +43% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +43% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $961.6M | +38% |
| Q2 2025 | $854.9M | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $771.8M | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $734.1M | +19% |
SOFI has the edge over AGO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +7.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +9.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +6.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -4.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.2% | -0.2 points |
SOFI's operating margin was 23% last quarter, up 7.5 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
AGO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92M | +67% |
| Q2 2026 | $40M | -49% |
| Q1 2026 | $190M | +118% |
| Q4 2025 | $39M | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $55M | +224% |
| Q2 2025 | $78M | +34% |
| Q1 2025 | $87M | +$161M |
| Q4 2024 | $46M | -77% |
AGO has the edge over SOFI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SOFI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$3.1B | -$1.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$4B | -$2.5B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.4B | -$2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -$815.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.4B | -$149M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.5B | -$1B |
| Q1 2025 | -$31.1M | -104% |
| Q4 2024 | -$242.4M | +$39.9M |
SOFI's free cash flow was −$10.5B over the past year, against −$3.2B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SOFI.
AGO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -7.7% | -3.7M shares |
| 3 years | -26% | -15.3M shares |
| 5 years | -40% | -29.3M shares |
| Available history | -56% | -55.9M shares |
AGO has the edge over SOFI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $10M |
| Q2 2026 | $45M |
| Q1 2026 | $75M |
| Q4 2025 | $131M |
| Q3 2025 | $118M |
| Q2 2025 | $131M |
| Q1 2025 | $120M |
| Q4 2024 | $90M |
AGO spent $261M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 43% from the year before.
SOFI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +5.8M shares |
| 1 year | +5.2% | +66.8M shares |
| 3 years | +43% | +407M shares |
| 5 years | +272% | +993M shares |
SOFI has 1.4B diluted shares, up 5.2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
AGO Net Leverage
SOFI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -6.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -5.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -5.8x | Net Cash |
SOFI has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SOFI.
AGO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 37.1 | Neutral |
AGO's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).
SOFI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 41.5 | Neutral |
SOFI's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).
AGO PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AGO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 13x | 21% below |
| PE % | 56 | 63 | 7 pts below |
AGO has the edge over SOFI on valuation relative to its sector.
SOFI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SOFI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 13x | 114% above |
| PE % | 2 | 61 | 59 pts below |
SOFI is trading at 28x earnings, a 114% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
AGO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $70.7 | 3.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $75.3 | 2.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $79.9 | 8.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $82.8 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $76.8 | 4.7% below |
AGO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 4.7% below its 200-week average.
SOFI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.7 | 0.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $17.0 | 7.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $18.9 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $18.9 | 17% below |
| 200 week MA | $13.5 | 16% above |
SOFI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 16% above its 200-week average.
AGO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $49.0 | $31.7 | -35% |
| 2021 | $31.7 | $48.9 | +54% |
| 2022 | $48.9 | $63.2 | +29% |
| 2023 | $63.2 | $74.8 | +18% |
| 2024 | $74.8 | $89.6 | +20% |
| 2025 | $89.6 | $90.7 | +1.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $90.7 | $73.2 | -19% |
AGO has the edge over SOFI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SOFI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.4 | $12.4 | +19% |
| 2021 | $12.4 | $15.1 | +22% |
| 2022 | $15.1 | $4.61 | -69% |
| 2023 | $4.61 | $9.95 | +116% |
| 2024 | $9.95 | $16.0 | +61% |
| 2025 | $16.0 | $27.1 | +69% |
| 2026 YTD | $27.1 | $15.6 | -42% |
SOFI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +116% in 2023 to −69% in 2022. It's down 42% so far in 2026.