AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
AGO's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over AGO overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
AGO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AGO's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AGO.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
AGO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.2x | $51.41 | -30% |
| Fair | 10x | $70.70 | -3.4% |
| Current | 10x | $73.16 | — |
| Forward | 11x | $73.16 | — |
| Expensive | 14x | $101 | +38% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AGO has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
AGO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect AGO's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over AGO on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
AGO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.76 | -4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.10 | -12% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.53 | -17% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.73 | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.26 | +49% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.10 | -37% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.09 | -25% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.42 | -34% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.87 | -44% |
AGO's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $7.10 over the past year, against $12.85 in early 2024.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over AGO on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AGO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $214M | +3.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $195M | -31% |
| Q1 2026 | $261M | -24% |
| Q4 2025 | $277M | +78% |
| Q3 2025 | $207M | -23% |
| Q2 2025 | $281M | +39% |
| Q1 2025 | $345M | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $156M | -52% |
AGO's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $214M last quarter, up 3.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 46% | -19 points |
| Q2 2026 | 25% | -22 points |
| Q1 2026 | 25% | -42 points |
| Q4 2025 | 60% | +40 points |
| Q3 2025 | 65% | -17 points |
| Q2 2025 | 47% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 66% | +7.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | -43 points |
AGO has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over AGO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AGO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92M | +67% |
| Q2 2026 | $40M | -49% |
| Q1 2026 | $190M | +118% |
| Q4 2025 | $39M | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $55M | +224% |
| Q2 2025 | $78M | +34% |
| Q1 2025 | $87M | +$161M |
| Q4 2024 | $46M | -77% |
AGO has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AGO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -7.7% | -3.7M shares |
| 3 years | -26% | -15.3M shares |
| 5 years | -40% | -29.3M shares |
| Available history | -56% | -55.9M shares |
AGO has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $10M |
| Q2 2026 | $45M |
| Q1 2026 | $75M |
| Q4 2025 | $131M |
| Q3 2025 | $118M |
| Q2 2025 | $131M |
| Q1 2025 | $120M |
| Q4 2024 | $90M |
AGO spent $261M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 43% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
AGO Net Leverage
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AGO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 37.1 | Neutral |
AGO's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
AGO PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AGO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 13x | 21% below |
| PE % | 56 | 63 | 7 pts below |
AGO has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
AGO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $70.7 | 3.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $75.3 | 2.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $79.9 | 8.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $82.8 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $76.8 | 4.7% below |
AGO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 4.7% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over AGO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AGO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $49.0 | $31.7 | -35% |
| 2021 | $31.7 | $48.9 | +54% |
| 2022 | $48.9 | $63.2 | +29% |
| 2023 | $63.2 | $74.8 | +18% |
| 2024 | $74.8 | $89.6 | +20% |
| 2025 | $89.6 | $90.7 | +1.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $90.7 | $73.2 | -19% |
AGO has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 19% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over AGO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.