AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
AGO has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
HOOD
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
HOOD has the edge over AGO overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
AGO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AGO's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AGO.
HOOD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HOOD's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HOOD.
AGO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.2x | $51.41 | -30% |
| Fair | 10x | $70.70 | -3.4% |
| Current | 10x | $73.16 | — |
| Forward | 11x | $73.16 | — |
| Expensive | 14x | $101 | +38% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AGO's PE is in its fair range at 10x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 11x.
HOOD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 30x | $81.35 | — |
| Cheap | 37x | $78.84 | -3.1% |
| Current | 38x | $81.35 | — |
| Fair | 51x | $110 | +35% |
| Expensive | 74x | $160 | +96% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HOOD has the edge over AGO in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
AGO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect AGO's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
HOOD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
HOOD has the edge over AGO on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
AGO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.76 | -4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.10 | -12% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.53 | -17% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.73 | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.26 | +49% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.10 | -37% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.09 | -25% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.42 | -34% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.87 | -44% |
AGO's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $7.10 over the past year, against $12.85 in early 2024.
HOOD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.72 | +26% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.16 | -10% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.26 | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.06 | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.05 | +31% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.40 | +314% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.96 | +513% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.75 | +1150% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.56 | +$2.17 |
HOOD has the edge over AGO on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AGO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $214M | +3.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $195M | -31% |
| Q1 2026 | $261M | -24% |
| Q4 2025 | $277M | +78% |
| Q3 2025 | $207M | -23% |
| Q2 2025 | $281M | +39% |
| Q1 2025 | $345M | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $156M | -52% |
AGO's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $214M last quarter, up 3.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 46% | -19 points |
| Q2 2026 | 25% | -22 points |
| Q1 2026 | 25% | -42 points |
| Q4 2025 | 60% | +40 points |
| Q3 2025 | 65% | -17 points |
| Q2 2025 | 47% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 66% | +7.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | -43 points |
AGO has the edge over HOOD on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HOOD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | +100% |
| Q2 2025 | $989M | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $927M | +50% |
| Q4 2024 | $1B | +115% |
HOOD has the edge over AGO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 44% | -5.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 54% | +9.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 39% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 52% | -3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 50% | +26 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +17 points |
| Q1 2025 | 40% | +14 points |
| Q4 2024 | 55% | +49 points |
HOOD's operating margin was 44% last quarter, down 5.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AGO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92M | +67% |
| Q2 2026 | $40M | -49% |
| Q1 2026 | $190M | +118% |
| Q4 2025 | $39M | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $55M | +224% |
| Q2 2025 | $78M | +34% |
| Q1 2025 | $87M | +$161M |
| Q4 2024 | $46M | -77% |
AGO's free cash flow was $361M over the past year, up 36% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like AGO.
HOOD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B | +$2.8B |
| Q2 2026 | $720M | -79% |
| Q1 2026 | $2B | +217% |
| Q4 2025 | -$937M | +$463M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.6B | -187% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.5B | +6398% |
| Q1 2025 | $642M | +$1.3B |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.4B | -246% |
HOOD's free cash flow was $3B over the past year, up 159% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like HOOD.
AGO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -7.7% | -3.7M shares |
| 3 years | -26% | -15.3M shares |
| 5 years | -40% | -29.3M shares |
| Available history | -56% | -55.9M shares |
AGO has the edge over HOOD on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $10M |
| Q2 2026 | $45M |
| Q1 2026 | $75M |
| Q4 2025 | $131M |
| Q3 2025 | $118M |
| Q2 2025 | $131M |
| Q1 2025 | $120M |
| Q4 2024 | $90M |
AGO spent $261M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 43% from the year before.
HOOD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -6.9M shares |
| 3 years | +1.8% | +15.9M shares |
| 5 years | +292% | +679M shares |
| Available history | +7.2% | +60.8M shares |
HOOD has 911M diluted shares, down 0.8% from a year ago, with $789M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $25M |
| Q2 2026 | $414M |
| Q1 2026 | $250M |
| Q4 2025 | $100M |
| Q3 2025 | $107M |
| Q2 2025 | $124M |
| Q1 2025 | $322M |
| Q4 2024 | $160M |
HOOD spent $789M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 11% from the year before.
AGO Net Leverage
HOOD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
HOOD has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like HOOD.
AGO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 37.1 | Neutral |
AGO's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).
HOOD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 9.5 | Oversold |
HOOD's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 10 (oversold).
AGO PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AGO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 13x | 21% below |
| PE % | 56 | 63 | 7 pts below |
AGO has the edge over HOOD on valuation relative to its sector.
HOOD PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HOOD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 38x | 13x | 189% above |
| PE % | 22 | 66 | 44 pts below |
HOOD is trading at 38x earnings, a 189% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
AGO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $70.7 | 3.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $75.3 | 2.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $79.9 | 8.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $82.8 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $76.8 | 4.7% below |
AGO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 4.7% below its 200-week average.
HOOD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $97.8 | 17% below |
| 20 week MA | $102.2 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $95.4 | 15% below |
| 100 week MA | $88.5 | 8.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $52.1 | 56% above |
HOOD has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 56% above its 200-week average.
AGO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $49.0 | $31.7 | -35% |
| 2021 | $31.7 | $48.9 | +54% |
| 2022 | $48.9 | $63.2 | +29% |
| 2023 | $63.2 | $74.8 | +18% |
| 2024 | $74.8 | $89.6 | +20% |
| 2025 | $89.6 | $90.7 | +1.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $90.7 | $73.2 | -19% |
AGO has the edge over HOOD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
HOOD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $35.2 | $18.9 | -46% |
| 2022 | $18.9 | $7.95 | -58% |
| 2023 | $7.95 | $12.7 | +60% |
| 2024 | $12.7 | $39.0 | +206% |
| 2025 | $39.0 | $118.1 | +203% |
| 2026 YTD | $118.1 | $81.4 | -31% |
HOOD's yearly returns have swung widely, from +206% in 2024 to −58% in 2022. It's down 31% so far in 2026.