AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
AGO's fundamentals are weak: its operating margin fell 13 points to 40% and earnings per share fell 12%. At 10x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 10x. Analysts expect earnings growth.
CIFR
Cipher Mining Inc.
There isn't enough reported data to score CIFR yet.
AGO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AGO's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AGO.
CIFR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
CIFR's revenue and profitability are currently weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like CIFR.
AGO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.2x | $51.41 | -30% |
| Fair | 10x | $70.70 | -3.4% |
| Current | 10x | $73.16 | — |
| Forward | 11x | $73.16 | — |
| Expensive | 14x | $101 | +38% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AGO's PE is in its fair range at 10x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 11x.
CIFR PE Valuation
CIFR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AGO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect AGO's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
CIFR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
CIFR has the edge over AGO on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
AGO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.76 | -4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.10 | -12% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.53 | -17% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.73 | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.26 | +49% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.10 | -37% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.09 | -25% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.42 | -34% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.87 | -44% |
AGO has the edge over CIFR on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
CIFR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$3.06 | -$2.86 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.85 | -$2.40 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.32 | -$1.94 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.15 | -$2.01 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.20 | -$0.07 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.45 | -850% |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.38 | -733% |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.14 | -$0.04 |
CIFR lost $3.06 per share over the past year, and its loss has widened in each of the last four quarters.
AGO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $214M | +3.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $195M | -31% |
| Q1 2026 | $261M | -24% |
| Q4 2025 | $277M | +78% |
| Q3 2025 | $207M | -23% |
| Q2 2025 | $281M | +39% |
| Q1 2025 | $345M | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $156M | -52% |
AGO's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $214M last quarter, up 3.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 46% | -19 points |
| Q2 2026 | 25% | -22 points |
| Q1 2026 | 25% | -42 points |
| Q4 2025 | 60% | +40 points |
| Q3 2025 | 65% | -17 points |
| Q2 2025 | 47% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 66% | +7.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | -43 points |
AGO has the edge over CIFR on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CIFR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $26.7M | -63% |
| Q2 2026 | $24.8M | -43% |
| Q1 2026 | $34.8M | -29% |
| Q4 2025 | $59.7M | +41% |
| Q3 2025 | $71.7M | +198% |
| Q2 2025 | $43.6M | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $49M | +1.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $42.2M | -2.8% |
CIFR has the edge over AGO on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -269% | -217 points |
| Q2 2026 | -316% | -212 points |
| Q1 2026 | -329% | -251 points |
| Q4 2025 | -503% | -544 points |
| Q3 2025 | -52% | +327 points |
| Q2 2025 | -104% | -60 points |
| Q1 2025 | -78% | -175 points |
| Q4 2024 | 40% | +4 points |
CIFR's operating margin was −269% last quarter, down 217 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AGO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92M | +67% |
| Q2 2026 | $40M | -49% |
| Q1 2026 | $190M | +118% |
| Q4 2025 | $39M | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $55M | +224% |
| Q2 2025 | $78M | +34% |
| Q1 2025 | $87M | +$161M |
| Q4 2024 | $46M | -77% |
AGO has the edge over CIFR on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
CIFR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.7B | -$1.4B |
| Q2 2026 | -$653.8M | -$566.3M |
| Q1 2026 | -$462.5M | -$390.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$280.3M | -$204.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$256.2M | -$173.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$87.5M | -$54.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$71.8M | -$37.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$76.1M | +$38M |
CIFR's free cash flow was −$3.1B over the past year, against −$492M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like CIFR.
AGO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -7.7% | -3.7M shares |
| 3 years | -26% | -15.3M shares |
| 5 years | -40% | -29.3M shares |
| Available history | -56% | -55.9M shares |
AGO has the edge over CIFR on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $10M |
| Q2 2026 | $45M |
| Q1 2026 | $75M |
| Q4 2025 | $131M |
| Q3 2025 | $118M |
| Q2 2025 | $131M |
| Q1 2025 | $120M |
| Q4 2024 | $90M |
AGO spent $261M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 43% from the year before.
CIFR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.4% | +30.3M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +46.5M shares |
| 3 years | +75% | +188M shares |
| 5 years | +102% | +222M shares |
CIFR has 440M diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago, despite $151M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $19.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $45.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $82.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $3M |
| Q2 2025 | $3.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $16.9M |
CIFR spent $151M buying back its own shares over the past year, about six times what it spent the year before.
AGO Net Leverage
CIFR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | 125.4x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2023 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2023 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
CIFR has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like CIFR.
AGO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 37.1 | Neutral |
AGO's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).
CIFR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.8 | Oversold |
CIFR's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
AGO PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AGO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 13x | 21% below |
| PE % | 56 | 63 | 7 pts below |
AGO is trading at 10x earnings, a 21% discount to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
CIFR PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | CIFR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 13x | — |
CIFR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AGO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $70.7 | 3.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $75.3 | 2.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $79.9 | 8.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $82.8 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $76.8 | 4.7% below |
AGO has the edge over CIFR on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CIFR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $10.6 | 33% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.5 | 54% below |
| 50 week MA | $17.0 | 58% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.2 | 41% below |
| 200 week MA | $7.86 | 9% below |
CIFR is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 9% below its 200-week average.
AGO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $49.0 | $31.7 | -35% |
| 2021 | $31.7 | $48.9 | +54% |
| 2022 | $48.9 | $63.2 | +29% |
| 2023 | $63.2 | $74.8 | +18% |
| 2024 | $74.8 | $89.6 | +20% |
| 2025 | $89.6 | $90.7 | +1.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $90.7 | $73.2 | -19% |
AGO has the edge over CIFR on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CIFR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.92 | $9.95 | +0.3% |
| 2021 | $9.95 | $5.21 | -48% |
| 2022 | $5.21 | $0.54 | -90% |
| 2023 | $0.54 | $4.13 | +665% |
| 2024 | $4.13 | $4.86 | +18% |
| 2025 | $4.86 | $15.2 | +213% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.2 | $7.15 | -53% |
CIFR's yearly returns have swung widely, from +665% in 2023 to −90% in 2022. It's down 53% so far in 2026.