AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
AGO has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
BLK
BlackRock, Inc.
BLK has the edge over AGO overall, supported by stronger fundamentals.
AGO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AGO's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AGO.
BLK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
BLK's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like BLK.
AGO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.2x | $51.41 | -30% |
| Fair | 10x | $70.70 | -3.4% |
| Current | 10x | $73.16 | — |
| Forward | 11x | $73.16 | — |
| Expensive | 14x | $101 | +38% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AGO has the edge over BLK in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
BLK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 19x | $848 | -30% |
| Fair | 22x | $973 | -20% |
| Expensive | 26x | $1,149 | -5.5% |
| Current | 28x | $1,217 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BLK's PE is in its expensive range at 28x.
AGO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect AGO's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
BLK Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for BLK to show an outlook.
AGO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.76 | -4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.10 | -12% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.53 | -17% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.73 | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.26 | +49% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.10 | -37% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.09 | -25% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.42 | -34% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.87 | -44% |
AGO's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $7.10 over the past year, against $12.85 in early 2024.
BLK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $43.87 | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $41.73 | -0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $39.73 | -4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $35.31 | -17% |
| Q3 2025 | $39.42 | -2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $41.89 | +4% |
| Q1 2025 | $41.69 | +5.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $42.53 | +16% |
BLK has the edge over AGO on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AGO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $214M | +3.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $195M | -31% |
| Q1 2026 | $261M | -24% |
| Q4 2025 | $277M | +78% |
| Q3 2025 | $207M | -23% |
| Q2 2025 | $281M | +39% |
| Q1 2025 | $345M | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $156M | -52% |
AGO's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $214M last quarter, up 3.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 46% | -19 points |
| Q2 2026 | 25% | -22 points |
| Q1 2026 | 25% | -42 points |
| Q4 2025 | 60% | +40 points |
| Q3 2025 | 65% | -17 points |
| Q2 2025 | 47% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 66% | +7.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | -43 points |
AGO has the edge over BLK on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BLK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.8B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.1B | +31% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.7B | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $7B | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.5B | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.3B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.7B | +23% |
BLK has the edge over AGO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 30% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 35% | +2.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 42% | +9.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 24% | -13 points |
| Q3 2025 | 30% | -8.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 32% | -5.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 32% | -3.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +2.3 points |
BLK's operating margin was 30% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
AGO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92M | +67% |
| Q2 2026 | $40M | -49% |
| Q1 2026 | $190M | +118% |
| Q4 2025 | $39M | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $55M | +224% |
| Q2 2025 | $78M | +34% |
| Q1 2025 | $87M | +$161M |
| Q4 2024 | $46M | -77% |
AGO's free cash flow was $361M over the past year, up 36% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like AGO.
BLK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.6B | +95% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | +$120M |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | -6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.2B | -$734M |
| Q4 2024 | $2.5B | +35% |
| Q2 2024 | $1.4B | +47% |
BLK's free cash flow was $4.8B over the past year, up 22% from the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like BLK.
AGO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -7.7% | -3.7M shares |
| 3 years | -26% | -15.3M shares |
| 5 years | -40% | -29.3M shares |
| Available history | -56% | -55.9M shares |
AGO has the edge over BLK on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $10M |
| Q2 2026 | $45M |
| Q1 2026 | $75M |
| Q4 2025 | $131M |
| Q3 2025 | $118M |
| Q2 2025 | $131M |
| Q1 2025 | $120M |
| Q4 2024 | $90M |
AGO spent $261M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 43% from the year before.
BLK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -148K shares |
| 1 year | -0.4% | -677K shares |
| 3 years | +9.3% | +14M shares |
| 5 years | +6.2% | +9.6M shares |
| Available history | +4.4% | +7M shares |
BLK has 165M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $396M |
| Q1 2025 | $657M |
| Q4 2024 | $386M |
| Q2 2024 | $519M |
| Q1 2024 | $634M |
| Q4 2023 | $384M |
| Q3 2023 | $396M |
| Q2 2023 | $383M |
AGO Net Leverage
BLK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2024 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
BLK has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like BLK.
AGO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 37.1 | Neutral |
AGO's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).
BLK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 64.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 79.0 | Neutral |
BLK's weekly RSI is 64 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 79 (neutral).
AGO PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AGO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 13x | 21% below |
| PE % | 56 | 63 | 7 pts below |
AGO has the edge over BLK on valuation relative to its sector.
BLK PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | BLK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 13x | 113% above |
| PE % | 97 | 63 | 34 pts above |
BLK is trading at 28x earnings, a 113% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
AGO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $70.7 | 3.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $75.3 | 2.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $79.9 | 8.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $82.8 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $76.8 | 4.7% below |
AGO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 4.7% below its 200-week average.
BLK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,128.0 | 7.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,108.9 | 9.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,071.6 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $1,051.1 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $914.1 | 33% above |
BLK has the edge over AGO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AGO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $49.0 | $31.7 | -35% |
| 2021 | $31.7 | $48.9 | +54% |
| 2022 | $48.9 | $63.2 | +29% |
| 2023 | $63.2 | $74.8 | +18% |
| 2024 | $74.8 | $89.6 | +20% |
| 2025 | $89.6 | $90.7 | +1.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $90.7 | $73.2 | -19% |
AGO has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 19% so far in 2026.
BLK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $503.0 | $707.2 | +41% |
| 2021 | $707.2 | $913.9 | +29% |
| 2022 | $913.9 | $703.9 | -23% |
| 2023 | $703.9 | $811.8 | +15% |
| 2024 | $811.8 | $1,044.2 | +29% |
| 2025 | $1,044.2 | $1,088.1 | +4.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,088.1 | $1,216.6 | +12% |
BLK has the edge over AGO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.