AGM
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
AGM offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has a slight edge over AGM overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
AGM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AGM's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AGM.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
AGM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 8x | $175 | — |
| Cheap | 9x | $169 | -3.4% |
| Current | 9.3x | $175 | — |
| Fair | 11x | $198 | +13% |
| Expensive | 12x | $230 | +31% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AGM has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
AGM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AGM, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
AGM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $21.78 | +15% |
| Q3 2026 | $18.88 | +7.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $18.29 | +7.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.36 | +7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $16.62 | +1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.55 | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.97 | +3.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $16.17 | -1.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.44 | +4% |
AGM earned $18.88 per share over the past year, up 7.6% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over AGM on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AGM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $125.3M | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $125M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $109.1M | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $107.5M | +6.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $104M | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $102.6M | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $94.3M | +0.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $101.3M | +19% |
AGM's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $125M last quarter, up 20% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 64% | -0.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 65% | +1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 65% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 56% | -11 points |
| Q3 2025 | 64% | -4.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 64% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 67% | -5.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 68% | -3.6 points |
AGM has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over AGM on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AGM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $362.7M | +389% |
| Q2 2026 | $40.4M | +$88.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $92.1M | +$141.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $103.4M | -72% |
| Q3 2025 | $74.2M | +$118.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$47.7M | -191% |
| Q1 2025 | -$49.8M | -122% |
| Q4 2024 | $367.5M | +$534.4M |
AGM has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AGM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +27K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -63K shares |
| 3 years | -0.3% | -29K shares |
| 5 years | +0.6% | +67K shares |
| Available history | +1.2% | +131K shares |
AGM has 11M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $7.1M |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over AGM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
AGM Net Leverage
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
AGM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 8.2 | Oversold |
AGM's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
AGM PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AGM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.3x | 13x | 29% below |
| PE % | 23 | 63 | 40 pts below |
AGM has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
AGM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $199.2 | 12% below |
| 20 week MA | $211.2 | 17% below |
| 50 week MA | $186.6 | 6.1% below |
| 100 week MA | $185.7 | 5.6% below |
| 200 week MA | $177.6 | 1.3% below |
AGM is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.3% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over AGM on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AGM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $84.2 | $73.9 | -12% |
| 2021 | $73.9 | $120.7 | +63% |
| 2022 | $120.7 | $114.0 | -5.5% |
| 2023 | $114.0 | $191.2 | +68% |
| 2024 | $191.2 | $197.3 | +3.2% |
| 2025 | $197.3 | $177.6 | -10% |
| 2026 YTD | $177.6 | $175.2 | -1.3% |
AGM has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 1.3% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over AGM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.