AGL
Agilon Health, Inc.
AGL has the edge over NVO overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AGL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
AGL's revenue and profitability are currently stable, but its cash flow is under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
AGL PE Valuation
AGL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 59x next year's earnings.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO's PE is 10x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AGL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AGL has the edge over NVO on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AGL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.86 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$5.46 | +$13.21 |
| Q2 2026 | -$14.08 | +$5.09 |
| Q1 2026 | -$21.43 | -$6.70 |
| Q4 2025 | -$23.63 | -$7.80 |
| Q3 2025 | -$18.67 | +$4.76 |
| Q2 2025 | -$19.17 | -$0.88 |
| Q1 2025 | -$14.73 | +$2.69 |
| Q4 2024 | -$15.83 | +$0.22 |
AGL is still losing money, but far less than before: $5.46 per share over the past year, against $27.25 at its worst in late 2021.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO has the edge over AGL on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AGL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | +5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +7.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | -7.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | +3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | -1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | -5.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | -4.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +87% |
AGL's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $1.5B last quarter, up 5.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.6% | +11 points |
| Q2 2026 | 0.8% | +9.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3% | +1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | -12% | -5.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | -9.2% | 0 points |
| Q2 2025 | -8.3% | -5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.4% | -1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -7.1% | +13 points |
AGL's operating margin was 1.6% last quarter, up 11 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO has the edge over AGL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over AGL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AGL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $46.6M | +$67.9M |
| Q2 2026 | -$60.7M | -$22.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6M | +$56.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$23.5M | -279% |
| Q3 2025 | -$21.3M | -$10.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$38.3M | -$16.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$35.8M | +$15.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $13.2M | +$78.3M |
AGL has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$17M over the past year, against −$82M the year before.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO has the edge over AGL on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AGL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.8% | +475K shares |
| 1 year | +6.7% | +1.1M shares |
| 3 years | +9% | +1.5M shares |
| 5 years | +13% | +2M shares |
| Available history | +15% | +2.3M shares |
AGL has 18M diluted shares, up 6.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q3 2020 | $6.7M |
| Q2 2020 | — |
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has the edge over AGL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
AGL Net Leverage
AGL's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
AGL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 58.3 | Neutral |
AGL's weekly RSI is 64 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
AGL PE vs Healthcare Sector
AGL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO is trading at 10x earnings, a 60% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x, though its earnings don't support one.
AGL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $91.3 | 21% above |
| 20 week MA | $96.3 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $61.7 | 79% above |
| 100 week MA | $59.8 | 85% above |
| 200 week MA | $181.6 | 39% below |
AGL has the edge over NVO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
AGL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $750.0 | $684.8 | -8.7% |
| 2022 | $684.8 | $407.0 | -41% |
| 2023 | $407.0 | $313.8 | -23% |
| 2024 | $313.8 | $47.5 | -85% |
| 2025 | $47.5 | $18.2 | -62% |
| 2026 YTD | $18.2 | $110.3 | +508% |
AGL has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.