AGL
Agilon Health, Inc.
AGL offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over AGL overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AGL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
AGL's revenue and profitability are currently stable, but its cash flow is under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AGL PE Valuation
AGL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 59x next year's earnings.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AGL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AGL to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
AGL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.86 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$5.46 | +$13.21 |
| Q2 2026 | -$14.08 | +$5.09 |
| Q1 2026 | -$21.43 | -$6.70 |
| Q4 2025 | -$23.63 | -$7.80 |
| Q3 2025 | -$18.67 | +$4.76 |
| Q2 2025 | -$19.17 | -$0.88 |
| Q1 2025 | -$14.73 | +$2.69 |
| Q4 2024 | -$15.83 | +$0.22 |
AGL is still losing money, but far less than before: $5.46 per share over the past year, against $27.25 at its worst in late 2021.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over AGL on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AGL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | +5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +7.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | -7.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | +3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | -1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | -5.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | -4.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +87% |
AGL's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $1.5B last quarter, up 5.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.6% | +11 points |
| Q2 2026 | 0.8% | +9.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3% | +1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | -12% | -5.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | -9.2% | 0 points |
| Q2 2025 | -8.3% | -5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.4% | -1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -7.1% | +13 points |
AGL's operating margin was 1.6% last quarter, up 11 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over AGL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over AGL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AGL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $46.6M | +$67.9M |
| Q2 2026 | -$60.7M | -$22.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6M | +$56.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$23.5M | -279% |
| Q3 2025 | -$21.3M | -$10.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$38.3M | -$16.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$35.8M | +$15.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $13.2M | +$78.3M |
AGL has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$17M over the past year, against −$82M the year before.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over AGL on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AGL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.8% | +475K shares |
| 1 year | +6.7% | +1.1M shares |
| 3 years | +9% | +1.5M shares |
| 5 years | +13% | +2M shares |
| Available history | +15% | +2.3M shares |
AGL has 18M diluted shares, up 6.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q3 2020 | $6.7M |
| Q2 2020 | — |
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over AGL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
AGL Net Leverage
AGL's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
AGL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 58.3 | Neutral |
AGL's weekly RSI is 64 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
AGL PE vs Healthcare Sector
AGL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
AGL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $91.3 | 21% above |
| 20 week MA | $96.3 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $61.7 | 79% above |
| 100 week MA | $59.8 | 85% above |
| 200 week MA | $181.6 | 39% below |
AGL has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 39% below its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over AGL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AGL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $750.0 | $684.8 | -8.7% |
| 2022 | $684.8 | $407.0 | -41% |
| 2023 | $407.0 | $313.8 | -23% |
| 2024 | $313.8 | $47.5 | -85% |
| 2025 | $47.5 | $18.2 | -62% |
| 2026 YTD | $18.2 | $110.3 | +508% |
AGL has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.