AGCO
AGCO Corporation
AGCO's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over AGCO overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
AGCO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
AGCO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AGCO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.8x | $34.04 | -69% |
| Fair | 13x | $51.31 | -54% |
| Forward | 17x | $111 | — |
| Current | 29x | $111 | — |
| Expensive | 34x | $131 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AGCO's PE is in its expensive range at 29x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 17x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over AGCO in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
AGCO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AGCO's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over AGCO on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
AGCO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.42 | +65% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.89 | -23% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.23 | +440% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.37 | +$18.17 |
| Q4 2025 | $9.75 | +$15.44 |
| Q3 2025 | $5.03 | +123% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.34 | -76% |
| Q1 2025 | -$7.80 | -153% |
| Q4 2024 | -$5.69 | -136% |
AGCO has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
AGCO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.3B | -8.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.6B | -1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.3B | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.9B | +1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5B | -4.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.1B | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.9B | -24% |
AGCO's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $2.3B last quarter, down 8.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.1% | -1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 5.4% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.4% | +1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.9% | +17 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.1% | +1.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6.2% | +14 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.4% | -6.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | -9.3% | -20 points |
AGCO's operating margin was 5.1% last quarter, down 1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over AGCO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over AGCO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AGCO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$33.8M | -1710% |
| Q2 2026 | $108.2M | -67% |
| Q1 2026 | -$455M | -$194.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $675M | -1.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.1M | +$61.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $323.5M | +135% |
| Q1 2025 | -$260.4M | +$204.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $683.9M | -7.6% |
AGCO usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$34M, but it generated $294M over the past year.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over AGCO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AGCO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.4% | -1.7M shares |
| 1 year | -7% | -5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -7.3% | -5.5M shares |
| 5 years | -8.1% | -6.1M shares |
| Available history | -9.7% | -7.5M shares |
AGCO has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $56.7M |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | $60M |
| Q3 2021 | $75M |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
AGCO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 4.6x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.9x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 9.7x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 4.0x | Elevated |
AGCO's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.6 years a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over AGCO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AGCO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 34.4 | Neutral |
AGCO's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
AGCO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | AGCO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 29x | 24x | 19% above |
| PE % | 78 | 58 | 20 pts above |
AGCO is trading at 29x earnings, a 19% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over AGCO on valuation relative to its sector.
AGCO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $109.8 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $112.3 | 0.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $114.9 | 3% below |
| 100 week MA | $108.4 | 2.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $111.7 | 0.2% below |
AGCO's trend is mixed: it's above two of its five weekly moving averages, and 0.2% below its 200-week average.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
AGCO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $77.8 | $103.2 | +33% |
| 2021 | $103.2 | $115.6 | +12% |
| 2022 | $115.6 | $134.2 | +16% |
| 2023 | $134.2 | $121.4 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $121.4 | $93.2 | -23% |
| 2025 | $93.2 | $105.5 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $105.5 | $111.4 | +5.7% |
AGCO has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.