AFL
Aflac Incorporated
AFL's fundamentals are weak and it looks expensive: trading at 19x earnings, about twice its usual 10x. Its downside scenario is about five times its upside.
AFL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AFL's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AFL.
AFL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.5x | $57.77 | -54% |
| Fair | 10x | $68.92 | -46% |
| Expensive | 14x | $98.12 | -22% |
| Forward | 17x | $127 | — |
| Current | 19x | $127 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AFL's PE is in its expensive range at 19x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 17x next year's earnings.
AFL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect AFL's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
AFL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.60 | +12% |
| Q3 2026 | $6.80 | -12% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.27 | +109% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.75 | +36% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.82 | -29% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.69 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.44 | -53% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.43 | -29% |
| Q4 2024 | $9.63 | +24% |
AFL's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $6.80 over the past year, against $9.63 in late 2024.
AFL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.3B | -31% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.1B | -1% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.3B | +28% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.9B | -9.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.7B | +61% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.2B | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.4B | -37% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.4B | +43% |
AFL's revenue has slid since its 2020 peak: $3.3B last quarter, down 31% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | -27 points |
| Q2 2026 | 24% | +4.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 28% | +24 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | -7.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 42% | +39 points |
| Q2 2025 | 20% | -20 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4.3% | -36 points |
| Q4 2024 | 40% | +32 points |
AFL's operating margin was 15% last quarter, down 27 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AFL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B | -4.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $112M | -72% |
| Q1 2026 | $968M | +64% |
| Q4 2025 | $315M | -5.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | -1.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $399M | +56% |
| Q1 2025 | $589M | -31% |
| Q4 2024 | $333M | -60% |
AFL's free cash flow was $2.6B over the past year, about the same as the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like AFL.
AFL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.4% | -6.9M shares |
| 1 year | -6.3% | -33.3M shares |
| 3 years | -16% | -94.9M shares |
| 5 years | -26% | -173M shares |
| Available history | -33% | -248M shares |
AFL has 499M diluted shares, down 6.3% from a year ago, with $3.6B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $803M |
| Q2 2026 | $984M |
| Q1 2026 | $1B |
| Q4 2025 | $801M |
| Q3 2025 | $1B |
| Q2 2025 | $829M |
| Q1 2025 | $900M |
| Q4 2024 | $750M |
AFL spent $3.6B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 3.1% from the year before.
AFL Net Leverage
AFL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 71.0 | Neutral |
AFL's weekly RSI is 64 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 71 (neutral).
AFL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AFL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19x | 13x | 43% above |
| PE % | 96 | 63 | 33 pts above |
AFL is trading at 19x earnings, a 43% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
AFL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $119.3 | 6% above |
| 20 week MA | $120.1 | 5.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $115.5 | 9.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $110.8 | 14% above |
| 200 week MA | $97.3 | 30% above |
AFL is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 30% above its 200-week average.
AFL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $52.6 | $43.8 | -17% |
| 2021 | $43.8 | $57.7 | +32% |
| 2022 | $57.7 | $71.8 | +24% |
| 2023 | $71.8 | $82.5 | +15% |
| 2024 | $82.5 | $103.4 | +25% |
| 2025 | $103.4 | $109.9 | +6.3% |
| 2026 YTD | $109.9 | $126.5 | +15% |
AFL has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 15% so far in 2026.