AFG
American Financial Group, Inc.
AFG offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM has the edge over AFG overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
AFG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
AFG's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like AFG.
JPM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
JPM's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like JPM.
AFG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.4x | $90.43 | -44% |
| Fair | 12x | $151 | -5.6% |
| Current | 13x | $160 | — |
| Forward | 13x | $160 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $179 | +12% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AFG's PE is in its expensive range at 13.1x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 13.4x.
JPM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.7x | $231 | -33% |
| Fair | 12x | $287 | -16% |
| Current | 14x | $343 | — |
| Forward | 14x | $343 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $361 | +5.2% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
JPM has the edge over AFG in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
AFG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect AFG's earnings, revenue and profitability to hold roughly steady.
JPM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
JPM has the edge over AFG on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
AFG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $11.98 | -2.4% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.27 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.45 | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.53 | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.08 | -4.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.52 | -11% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.10 | -14% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.52 | -8.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.57 | +5.2% |
AFG's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $12.27 over the past year, against $27.03 in late 2021.
JPM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $24.99 | +4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $23.85 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.35 | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.89 | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.02 | +1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.20 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.50 | +8.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.38 | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.75 | +22% |
JPM has the edge over AFG on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AFG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.6B | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | +5.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.9B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | -4% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.3B | -1.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.9B | +1.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | -2.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | +3.2% |
AFG's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $2.6B last quarter, up 11% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +2.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | +3.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +2.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | +1.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | -2.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | -5.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | -1.2 points |
AFG's operating margin was 14% last quarter, up 2.4 points from the same quarter a year ago.
JPM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50.2B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $57.3B | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $49.8B | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.8B | +7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $46.4B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.9B | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $45.3B | +8.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $42.8B | +11% |
JPM has the edge over AFG on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 40% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 48% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 41% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 37% | -3.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 41% | -6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 41% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +11 points |
JPM has the edge over AFG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AFG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $405M | +88% |
| Q2 2026 | $92M | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $474M | +39% |
| Q4 2025 | $784M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $216M | -53% |
| Q2 2025 | $191M | +$279M |
| Q1 2025 | $342M | +220% |
| Q4 2024 | $674M | -11% |
AFG has the edge over JPM on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
JPM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $33.2B | +$78.4B |
| Q2 2026 | -$25.3B | -186% |
| Q1 2026 | -$211.8B | +$40.1B |
| Q4 2025 | $119.7B | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | -$45.2B | +$28.9B |
| Q2 2025 | $29.5B | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | -$251.8B | -$97.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $147.8B | +145% |
JPM's free cash flow was −$84.2B over the past year, against −$120B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
AFG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -100K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -500K shares |
| 3 years | -2.1% | -1.8M shares |
| 5 years | -2.7% | -2.3M shares |
| Available history | -9.2% | -8.4M shares |
AFG has 83M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $26M |
| Q2 2026 | $26M |
| Q1 2026 | $60M |
| Q4 2025 | $1M |
| Q3 2025 | $1M |
| Q2 2025 | $39M |
| Q1 2025 | $58M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
AFG spent $113M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 15% from the year before.
JPM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -11.2M shares |
| 1 year | -3.1% | -84.6M shares |
| 3 years | -8.5% | -249M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -322M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -547M shares |
JPM has the edge over AFG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q2 2026 | $6.8B |
| Q1 2026 | $8.3B |
| Q4 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q3 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $4.3B |
JPM spent $24.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 11% from the year before.
AFG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
AFG has the edge over JPM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
JPM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
JPM's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA). Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
AFG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 75.1 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 87.0 | Overbought |
AFG's weekly RSI is 75 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 87 (overbought).
JPM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.5 | Neutral |
JPM's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
AFG PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | AFG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 13x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 69 | 63 | 6 pts above |
AFG has the edge over JPM on valuation relative to its sector.
JPM PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | JPM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 10% above |
| PE % | 76 | 63 | 13 pts above |
JPM is trading at 14x earnings, a 10% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
AFG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $148.4 | 8% above |
| 20 week MA | $145.2 | 10% above |
| 50 week MA | $137.3 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $134.1 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.2 | 24% above |
AFG has the edge over JPM on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
JPM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $336.8 | 1.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $345.3 | 0.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $323.2 | 6.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $298.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $236.6 | 45% above |
JPM's trend is mixed: it's above four of its five weekly moving averages, and 45% above its 200-week average.
AFG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $109.2 | $87.6 | -20% |
| 2021 | $87.6 | $135.4 | +55% |
| 2022 | $135.4 | $137.8 | +1.8% |
| 2023 | $137.8 | $118.9 | -14% |
| 2024 | $118.9 | $137.0 | +15% |
| 2025 | $137.0 | $138.2 | +0.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $138.2 | $160.3 | +16% |
AFG has the edge over JPM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
JPM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $139.1 | $124.5 | -11% |
| 2021 | $124.5 | $157.3 | +26% |
| 2022 | $157.3 | $131.3 | -17% |
| 2023 | $131.3 | $170.1 | +30% |
| 2024 | $170.1 | $241.2 | +42% |
| 2025 | $241.2 | $327.9 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $327.9 | $342.8 | +4.5% |
JPM has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 4.5% so far in 2026.