AES
The AES Corporation
AES has the edge over SMR overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
SMR
NuScale Power Corporation
SMR offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
AES Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
AES's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
SMR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
SMR's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
AES PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 6x | $14.91 | — |
| Forward | 6.8x | $14.91 | — |
| Cheap | 7.3x | $18.13 | +22% |
| Fair | 14x | $35.58 | +139% |
| Expensive | 33x | $82.41 | +453% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AES's PE is 6.0x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
SMR PE Valuation
SMR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AES Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AES, but weaker profitability.
SMR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect SMR's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
AES Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.18 | -12% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.49 | +69% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.62 | +103% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.87 | +9.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.26 | -44% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.47 | +0.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.29 | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.71 | +131% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.24 | +540% |
AES has the edge over SMR on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
SMR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.72 | +$2.14 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.46 | -$1.27 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.46 | -$1.09 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.43 | -$0.96 |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.86 | -$1.91 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.19 | -$0.16 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.37 | -$0.52 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.47 | -$0.67 |
SMR is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.72 per share over the past year, against $2.86 at its worst in late 2025.
AES Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.9B | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.4B | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.2B | +8.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.1B | +4.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.4B | +1.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | -3% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.9B | -5.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | -0.2% |
AES's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $3.9B last quarter, up 16% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | +3.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +12 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.6% | +8.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.7% | -14 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.8% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.4% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -0.8% | -9.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.7% | +25 points |
AES has the edge over SMR on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SMR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $281K | -97% |
| Q2 2026 | $75K | -99% |
| Q1 2026 | $565K | -96% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.8M | -95% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.2M | +1635% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.1M | +733% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.4M | +870% |
| Q4 2024 | $34.2M | +651% |
SMR's revenue has slid since its 2024 peak: $281,000 last quarter, down 97% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -23068% | -16535 points |
| Q2 2026 | -85337% | -84802 points |
| Q1 2026 | -10181% | -9917 points |
| Q4 2025 | -4022% | -3988 points |
| Q3 2025 | -6533% | +2103 points |
| Q2 2025 | -535% | +3796 points |
| Q1 2025 | -264% | +2925 points |
| Q4 2024 | -35% | +1524 points |
SMR's operating margin was −23068% last quarter, down 16535 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2022.
AES Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$307M | +$204M |
| Q2 2026 | -$597M | -$241M |
| Q1 2026 | -$565M | +$144M |
| Q4 2025 | -$47M | +$592M |
| Q3 2025 | -$511M | +$336M |
| Q2 2025 | -$356M | +$937M |
| Q1 2025 | -$709M | +$1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | -$639M | +$1.1B |
AES has the stronger cash trend. Its trailing FCF is up 27% versus its history, compared with SMR at down 161%.
SMR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$58.6M | -$25.3M |
| Q1 2026 | -$316.2M | -$293.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$204.1M | -$177.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$33.3M | +$2.7M |
| Q1 2025 | -$22.9M | +$10.6M |
| Q4 2024 | -$26.5M | +$46.8M |
| Q3 2024 | -$12.7M | +$15M |
| Q2 2024 | -$36M | +$4.5M |
SMR has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$608M over the past year, against −$95M the year before.
AES Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | +0.1% | +1M shares |
| 3 years | +0.4% | +3M shares |
| 5 years | +0.7% | +5M shares |
| Available history | +7.2% | +48M shares |
AES has the edge over SMR on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
SMR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +45.9M shares |
| 1 year | +178% | +263M shares |
| 3 years | +448% | +336M shares |
SMR has 410M diluted shares, up 178% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
AES Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
AES has more cash than debt.
SMR Net Leverage
SMR's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
AES Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 52.9 | Neutral |
AES's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 53 (neutral).
SMR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 29.5 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 8.6 | Oversold |
SMR's weekly RSI is 30 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 9 (oversold).
AES PE vs Utilities Sector
| Metric | AES | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6x | 20x | 71% below |
| PE % | 12 | 44 | 32 pts below |
AES is trading at 6.0x earnings, a 71% discount to the Utilities sector's median of 20x, though its earnings don't support one.
SMR PE vs Utilities Sector
SMR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AES Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $14.9 | 0% above |
| 20 week MA | $14.8 | 0.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $14.7 | 1.4% above |
| 100 week MA | $13.5 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $16.2 | 7.7% below |
AES has the edge over SMR on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SMR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $6.26 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $7.88 | 39% below |
| 50 week MA | $11.4 | 58% below |
| 100 week MA | $20.2 | 76% below |
| 200 week MA | $14.4 | 67% below |
SMR is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 67% below its 200-week average.
AES Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $20.0 | $23.3 | +16% |
| 2021 | $23.3 | $23.6 | +1.2% |
| 2022 | $23.6 | $28.7 | +22% |
| 2023 | $28.7 | $19.3 | -33% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $12.8 | -34% |
| 2025 | $12.8 | $14.1 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $14.1 | $14.9 | +6% |
AES has the edge over SMR on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SMR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.1 | $10.3 | +1.2% |
| 2021 | $10.3 | $10.1 | -1.9% |
| 2022 | $10.1 | $10.1 | +0.5% |
| 2023 | $10.1 | $3.29 | -67% |
| 2024 | $3.29 | $19.5 | +493% |
| 2025 | $19.5 | $14.9 | -24% |
| 2026 YTD | $14.9 | $4.82 | -68% |
SMR's yearly returns have swung widely, from +493% in 2024 to −67% in 2023. It's down 68% so far in 2026.