AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
AEO has the edge over NKE overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AEO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
AEO's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
AEO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.9x | $17.27 | -20% |
| Forward | 10x | $21.67 | — |
| Current | 11x | $21.67 | — |
| Fair | 15x | $29.33 | +35% |
| Expensive | 22x | $42.36 | +95% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AEO's PE is in its cheap range at 11x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 10x next year's earnings.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE has the edge over AEO in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
AEO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
AEO has the edge over NKE on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AEO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.13 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.93 | +86% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.59 | +62% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -35% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.16 | -0.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.04 | -17% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.98 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.68 | +95% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.17 | +3.5% |
AEO has the edge over NKE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
AEO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +7.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +9.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | +5.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | -0.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | -4.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.6B | -4.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | -0.9% |
AEO has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +7.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4% | +10 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.3% | -3.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.3% | 0 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | -7.8% | -15 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.9% | +8.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.2% | -1.4 points |
AEO has the edge over NKE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE's operating margin was 8.2% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
AEO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $115.3M | +$158.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$126.6M | -$10.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $357.3M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.5M | +$5.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$43.1M | -346% |
| Q2 2025 | -$116.3M | -$42M |
| Q1 2025 | $318.9M | +24% |
| Q4 2024 | -$7.8M | -108% |
AEO has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
AEO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.3% | -2.2M shares |
| 1 year | -0.9% | -1.5M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -27M shares |
| 5 years | -18% | -36.4M shares |
| Available history | +0.9% | +1.5M shares |
AEO has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $53.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $25.6M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $31.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $60M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
AEO spent $79M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 13% from the year before.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
AEO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
AEO has the edge over NKE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
AEO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 85.9 | Overbought |
AEO's weekly RSI is 66 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
AEO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | AEO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 18x | 38% below |
| PE % | 32 | 47 | 15 pts below |
AEO has the edge over NKE on valuation relative to its sector.
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
AEO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $18.7 | 16% above |
| 20 week MA | $17.4 | 24% above |
| 50 week MA | $19.4 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $16.6 | 30% above |
| 200 week MA | $17.4 | 24% above |
AEO has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
AEO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.5 | $19.8 | +37% |
| 2021 | $19.8 | $23.3 | +17% |
| 2022 | $23.3 | $14.6 | -37% |
| 2023 | $14.6 | $21.2 | +45% |
| 2024 | $21.2 | $16.5 | -22% |
| 2025 | $16.5 | $26.4 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $26.4 | $21.7 | -18% |
AEO has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.