AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
AEO has the edge over NIO overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
AEO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
AEO's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
AEO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.9x | $17.27 | -20% |
| Forward | 10x | $21.67 | — |
| Current | 11x | $21.67 | — |
| Fair | 15x | $29.33 | +35% |
| Expensive | 22x | $42.36 | +95% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AEO's PE is in its cheap range at 11x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 10x next year's earnings.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AEO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect AEO's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
NIO has the edge over AEO on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
AEO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.13 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.93 | +86% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.59 | +62% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -35% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.16 | -0.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.04 | -17% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.98 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.68 | +95% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.17 | +3.5% |
AEO has the edge over NIO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
AEO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +7.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +9.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | +5.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | -0.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | -4.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.6B | -4.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | -0.9% |
AEO's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $1.4B last quarter, up 7.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +7.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4% | +10 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.3% | -3.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.3% | 0 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | -7.8% | -15 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.9% | +8.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.2% | -1.4 points |
AEO has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO has the edge over AEO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AEO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $115.3M | +$158.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$126.6M | -$10.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $357.3M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.5M | +$5.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$43.1M | -346% |
| Q2 2025 | -$116.3M | -$42M |
| Q1 2025 | $318.9M | +24% |
| Q4 2024 | -$7.8M | -108% |
AEO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2023 peak: $343M over the past year.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO's free cash flow was $0 over the past year, against −$2.5B the year before.
AEO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.3% | -2.2M shares |
| 1 year | -0.9% | -1.5M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -27M shares |
| 5 years | -18% | -36.4M shares |
| Available history | +0.9% | +1.5M shares |
AEO has the edge over NIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $53.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $25.6M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $31.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $60M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
AEO spent $79M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 13% from the year before.
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has 2.5B diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
AEO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
AEO has more cash than debt.
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
AEO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 85.9 | Overbought |
AEO's weekly RSI is 66 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
AEO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | AEO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 18x | 38% below |
| PE % | 32 | 47 | 15 pts below |
AEO is trading at 11x earnings, a 38% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AEO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $18.7 | 16% above |
| 20 week MA | $17.4 | 24% above |
| 50 week MA | $19.4 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $16.6 | 30% above |
| 200 week MA | $17.4 | 24% above |
AEO has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
AEO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.5 | $19.8 | +37% |
| 2021 | $19.8 | $23.3 | +17% |
| 2022 | $23.3 | $14.6 | -37% |
| 2023 | $14.6 | $21.2 | +45% |
| 2024 | $21.2 | $16.5 | -22% |
| 2025 | $16.5 | $26.4 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $26.4 | $21.7 | -18% |
AEO has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.