AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
AEO has the edge over F overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
F
Ford Motor Company
F has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AEO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
AEO's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
F Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
F's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
AEO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.9x | $17.27 | -20% |
| Forward | 10x | $21.67 | — |
| Current | 11x | $21.67 | — |
| Fair | 15x | $29.33 | +35% |
| Expensive | 22x | $42.36 | +95% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AEO's PE is in its cheap range at 11x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 10x next year's earnings.
F PE Valuation
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AEO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect AEO's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
F Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect F's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AEO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.13 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.93 | +86% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.59 | +62% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -35% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.16 | -0.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.04 | -17% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.98 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.68 | +95% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.17 | +3.5% |
AEO has the edge over F on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
F Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.97 | -270% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.87 | -340% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.55 | -224% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.06 | -241% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.78 | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.25 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.46 | +35% |
F has swung to a loss: it lost $1.97 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
AEO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +7.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +9.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | +5.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | -0.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | -4.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.6B | -4.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | -0.9% |
AEO has the edge over F on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +7.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4% | +10 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.3% | -3.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.3% | 0 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | -7.8% | -15 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.9% | +8.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.2% | -1.4 points |
AEO has the edge over F on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
F Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $49.5B | -2% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.3B | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $43.3B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.9B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.5B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $50.2B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.7B | -5% |
| Q4 2024 | $48.2B | +4.9% |
F's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $49.5B last quarter, down 2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -25% | -28 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5% | +3.1 points |
F's operating margin was 2.9% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
AEO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $115.3M | +$158.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$126.6M | -$10.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $357.3M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.5M | +$5.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$43.1M | -346% |
| Q2 2025 | -$116.3M | -$42M |
| Q1 2025 | $318.9M | +24% |
| Q4 2024 | -$7.8M | -108% |
AEO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2023 peak: $343M over the past year.
F Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | -54% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -157% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +108% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.3B | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.2B | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | +$2.6B |
| Q4 2024 | $530M | +169% |
F has the edge over AEO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AEO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.3% | -2.2M shares |
| 1 year | -0.9% | -1.5M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -27M shares |
| 5 years | -18% | -36.4M shares |
| Available history | +0.9% | +1.5M shares |
AEO has the edge over F on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $53.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $25.6M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $31.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $60M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
AEO spent $79M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 13% from the year before.
F Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.2% | +89M shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +28M shares |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +26M shares |
| 5 years | +1% | +40M shares |
| Available history | +1.8% | +72M shares |
F has 4.1B diluted shares, up 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $311M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $150M |
F spent $311M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 107% from the year before.
AEO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
AEO has more cash than debt.
F Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
F has the edge over AEO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AEO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 85.9 | Overbought |
AEO's weekly RSI is 66 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
F Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.6 | Oversold |
F's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
AEO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | AEO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 18x | 38% below |
| PE % | 32 | 47 | 15 pts below |
AEO is trading at 11x earnings, a 38% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
F PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | F | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AEO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $18.7 | 16% above |
| 20 week MA | $17.4 | 24% above |
| 50 week MA | $19.4 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $16.6 | 30% above |
| 200 week MA | $17.4 | 24% above |
AEO has the edge over F on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
F Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.2 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.3 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.4 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 2% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.1 | 1.4% below |
F is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.4% below its 200-week average.
AEO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.5 | $19.8 | +37% |
| 2021 | $19.8 | $23.3 | +17% |
| 2022 | $23.3 | $14.6 | -37% |
| 2023 | $14.6 | $21.2 | +45% |
| 2024 | $21.2 | $16.5 | -22% |
| 2025 | $16.5 | $26.4 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $26.4 | $21.7 | -18% |
AEO has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 18% so far in 2026.
F Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.36 | $8.86 | -5.3% |
| 2021 | $8.86 | $20.3 | +129% |
| 2022 | $20.3 | $11.4 | -44% |
| 2023 | $11.4 | $12.2 | +7.3% |
| 2024 | $12.2 | $10.0 | -18% |
| 2025 | $10.0 | $13.3 | +33% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $11.9 | -11% |
F has the edge over AEO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.