ADT
ADT Inc.
ADT's fundamentals are mixed: it turned 35% of its revenue into free cash flow, while its operating margin held steady at 25%. At 14x earnings, it's trading above its usual 12x. Analysts expect earnings growth.
ADT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
ADT's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
ADT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.9x | $7.25 | -27% |
| Forward | 10x | $9.89 | — |
| Fair | 12x | $8.67 | -12% |
| Expensive | 14x | $10.49 | +6.1% |
| Current | 14x | $9.89 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ADT's PE is in its expensive range at 14x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 10x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
ADT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect ADT's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
ADT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.95 | +31% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.73 | +5.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.70 | +6.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.69 | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.65 | +25% |
| Q1 2023 | $0.03 | +$0.32 |
| Q4 2022 | $0.18 | +$0.59 |
| Q3 2022 | -$0.04 | +$0.44 |
| Q2 2022 | -$0.04 | +$0.46 |
ADT's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $0.73 over the past year, up 5.8% from the year before, and higher year over year for 17 quarters in a row.
ADT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +3.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +1.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | +4.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +6.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | +6.5% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.2B | +5.4% |
ADT's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $1.3B last quarter, up 3.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 24% | -2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 25% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 26% | +1.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 24% | -2.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 27% | +2.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 25% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 25% | N/A |
ADT's operating margin was 23% last quarter, down 1.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ADT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $394.7M | -9.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $620.3M | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $589M | +87% |
| Q4 2025 | $235.5M | -24% |
| Q3 2025 | $437M | +31% |
| Q2 2025 | $526M | +41% |
| Q1 2025 | $315.7M | +73% |
| Q3 2024 | $333M | +36% |
ADT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for six years: $1.8B over the past year, up 16% from the year before.
ADT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -8% | -63.5M shares |
| 1 year | -17% | -153M shares |
| 3 years | -20% | -179M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -86.9M shares |
| Available history | -2.2% | -16.7M shares |
ADT has 731M diluted shares, down 17% from a year ago, with $624M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $23.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $484M |
| Q1 2026 | $116M |
| Q4 2025 | $233,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $111.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $98.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $396.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $147.6M |
ADT spent $624M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 17% from the year before.
ADT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.8x | Moderate |
ADT's net debt is about 2.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
ADT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 74.5 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 96.8 | Overbought |
ADT's weekly RSI is 75 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 97 (overbought).
ADT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ADT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 24x | 44% below |
| PE % | 75 | 58 | 17 pts above |
ADT is trading at 14x earnings, a 44% discount to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
ADT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $7.81 | 27% above |
| 20 week MA | $7.46 | 33% above |
| 50 week MA | $7.39 | 34% above |
| 100 week MA | $7.75 | 28% above |
| 200 week MA | $7.30 | 35% above |
ADT is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 35% above its 200-week average.
ADT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $7.78 | $8.10 | +4.1% |
| 2021 | $8.10 | $8.56 | +5.7% |
| 2022 | $8.56 | $9.16 | +7% |
| 2023 | $9.16 | $6.82 | -26% |
| 2024 | $6.82 | $6.97 | +2.2% |
| 2025 | $6.97 | $8.14 | +17% |
| 2026 YTD | $8.14 | $9.89 | +21% |
ADT has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 21% so far in 2026.