ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
ADP has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
VRT
Vertiv Holdings Co
VRT has the edge over ADP overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
ADP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
ADP's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue is stable.
VRT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
VRT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
ADP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 24x | $308 | — |
| Cheap | 25x | $284 | -7.9% |
| Current | 27x | $308 | — |
| Fair | 30x | $337 | +9.4% |
| Expensive | 33x | $375 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ADP's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 24x next year's earnings.
VRT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 23x | $210 | — |
| Current | 39x | $210 | — |
| Cheap | 58x | $308 | +47% |
| Fair | 72x | $383 | +83% |
| Expensive | 88x | $472 | +125% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VRT has the edge over ADP in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ADP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ADP, with profitability improving.
VRT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for VRT, with profitability improving.
ADP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.63 | +12% |
| Q3 2026 | $11.28 | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.94 | +9.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.72 | +9.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.40 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.13 | +8.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.98 | +9.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.76 | +8.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $9.58 | +11% |
ADP's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $11.28 over the past year, up 11% from the year before, and higher year over year for 22 quarters in a row.
VRT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.14 | +71% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.35 | +102% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | +111% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.98 | +131% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.41 | +166% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.65 | +75% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.09 | +62% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.72 | +64% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.28 | +7.6% |
VRT has the edge over ADP on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
ADP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.5B | +6.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.5B | +6.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.9B | +7% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.4B | +6.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.2B | +7.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.1B | +7.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.6B | +5.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $5B | +8.1% |
ADP's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $5.5B last quarter, up 6.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 24% | +0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 29% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 24% | +0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 23% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 21% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 28% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 23% | +0.1 points |
ADP has the edge over VRT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
VRT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | +61% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.6B | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.9B | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.7B | +29% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $2B | +24% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.3B | +26% |
VRT has the edge over ADP on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +3.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +2.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 19% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | +4.2 points |
VRT's operating margin was 23% last quarter, up 3.5 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
ADP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $598.3M | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4B | -3.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.2B | +47% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | -0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $595.6M | -22% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +3.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | +14% |
ADP's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $5.2B over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
VRT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $654.9M | +41% |
| Q2 2026 | $926.5M | +233% |
| Q1 2026 | $654.2M | +145% |
| Q4 2025 | $885.6M | +143% |
| Q3 2025 | $463.5M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $277.9M | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $266.8M | +162% |
| Q4 2024 | $364.5M | +18% |
VRT has the edge over ADP on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ADP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.4% | -5.7M shares |
| 1 year | -2.2% | -8.9M shares |
| 3 years | -3.9% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -6.2% | -26.2M shares |
| Available history | -8.2% | -35.7M shares |
ADP has the edge over VRT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $758.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $620.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $581.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $515.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $366M |
| Q2 2025 | $324M |
| Q1 2025 | $311.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $272.3M |
ADP spent $2.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 94% from the year before.
VRT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -64.9K shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +1.8M shares |
| 3 years | +1.1% | +4.4M shares |
| 5 years | +10% | +36M shares |
| Available history | +63% | +152M shares |
VRT has 393M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | $599.9M |
ADP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.3x | Very low |
ADP's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
VRT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Healthy |
VRT has the edge over ADP on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ADP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 67.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
ADP's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
VRT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 26.4 | Neutral |
VRT's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
ADP PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ADP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 24x | 14% above |
| PE % | 27 | 58 | 31 pts below |
ADP has the edge over VRT on valuation relative to its sector.
VRT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | VRT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39x | 24x | 63% above |
| PE % | 3 | 58 | 55 pts below |
VRT is trading at 39x earnings, a 63% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
ADP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $286.3 | 7.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $273.8 | 12% above |
| 50 week MA | $246.0 | 25% above |
| 100 week MA | $271.2 | 14% above |
| 200 week MA | $258.0 | 19% above |
ADP has the edge over VRT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
VRT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $221.8 | 5.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $254.4 | 18% below |
| 50 week MA | $253.9 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $189.1 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $123.5 | 70% above |
VRT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 70% above its 200-week average.
ADP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $170.8 | $176.6 | +3.4% |
| 2021 | $176.6 | $242.0 | +37% |
| 2022 | $242.0 | $240.9 | -0.4% |
| 2023 | $240.9 | $233.0 | -3.3% |
| 2024 | $233.0 | $296.2 | +27% |
| 2025 | $296.2 | $258.8 | -13% |
| 2026 YTD | $258.8 | $307.9 | +19% |
ADP has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 19% so far in 2026.
VRT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.9 | $18.9 | +73% |
| 2021 | $18.9 | $24.9 | +31% |
| 2022 | $24.9 | $12.8 | -48% |
| 2023 | $12.8 | $48.0 | +275% |
| 2024 | $48.0 | $115.1 | +140% |
| 2025 | $115.1 | $167.6 | +46% |
| 2026 YTD | $167.6 | $209.6 | +25% |
VRT has the edge over ADP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.