ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
ADP has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ADP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
ADP's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue is stable.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ADP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 24x | $308 | — |
| Cheap | 25x | $284 | -7.9% |
| Current | 27x | $308 | — |
| Fair | 30x | $337 | +9.4% |
| Expensive | 33x | $375 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ADP has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ADP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ADP, with profitability improving.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ADP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.63 | +12% |
| Q3 2026 | $11.28 | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.94 | +9.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.72 | +9.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.40 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.13 | +8.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.98 | +9.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.76 | +8.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $9.58 | +11% |
ADP has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
ADP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.5B | +6.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.5B | +6.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.9B | +7% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.4B | +6.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.2B | +7.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.1B | +7.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.6B | +5.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $5B | +8.1% |
ADP's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $5.5B last quarter, up 6.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 24% | +0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 29% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 24% | +0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 23% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 21% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 28% | -0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 23% | +0.1 points |
ADP has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ADP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $598.3M | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4B | -3.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.2B | +47% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | -0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $595.6M | -22% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +3.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | +14% |
ADP has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ADP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.4% | -5.7M shares |
| 1 year | -2.2% | -8.9M shares |
| 3 years | -3.9% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -6.2% | -26.2M shares |
| Available history | -8.2% | -35.7M shares |
ADP has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $758.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $620.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $581.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $515.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $366M |
| Q2 2025 | $324M |
| Q1 2025 | $311.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $272.3M |
ADP spent $2.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 94% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ADP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.3x | Very low |
ADP's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over ADP on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ADP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 67.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
ADP's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ADP PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ADP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 24x | 13% above |
| PE % | 27 | 58 | 31 pts below |
ADP is trading at 27x earnings, a 13% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over ADP on valuation relative to its sector.
ADP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $286.3 | 7.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $273.8 | 12% above |
| 50 week MA | $246.0 | 25% above |
| 100 week MA | $271.2 | 14% above |
| 200 week MA | $258.0 | 19% above |
ADP has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
ADP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $170.8 | $176.6 | +3.4% |
| 2021 | $176.6 | $242.0 | +37% |
| 2022 | $242.0 | $240.9 | -0.4% |
| 2023 | $240.9 | $233.0 | -3.3% |
| 2024 | $233.0 | $296.2 | +27% |
| 2025 | $296.2 | $258.8 | -13% |
| 2026 YTD | $258.8 | $307.9 | +19% |
ADP has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.