ADBE
Adobe Inc.
ADBE has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
SMCI has the edge over ADBE overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
ADBE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
ADBE's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
SMCI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Weak | |
| Strong |
SMCI's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently strong, but its cash flow is weak.
ADBE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 8.9x | $239 | — |
| Current | 13x | $239 | — |
| Cheap | 22x | $396 | +66% |
| Fair | 43x | $771 | +223% |
| Expensive | 54x | $972 | +308% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ADBE's PE is in its cheap range at 13x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 8.9x next year's earnings.
SMCI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 4.3x | $26.99 | — |
| Current | 5.7x | $26.99 | — |
| Cheap | 13x | $61.50 | +128% |
| Fair | 19x | $88.86 | +229% |
| Expensive | 26x | $125 | +363% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SMCI has the edge over ADBE in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ADBE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ADBE, with profitability improving.
SMCI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for SMCI, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ADBE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $26.84 | +50% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.91 | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.47 | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.16 | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $16.70 | +35% |
| Q3 2025 | $16.01 | +35% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.59 | +40% |
| Q1 2025 | $15.14 | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.36 | +4.6% |
ADBE has the edge over SMCI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SMCI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.22 | +31% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.75 | +274% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.26 | +94% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.91 | +4.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.36 | -41% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.27 | -45% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.68 | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.83 | +2.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.32 | +81% |
SMCI's earnings per share have jumped to their highest in seven years: $4.75 over the past year, up from $1.27 the year before.
ADBE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.8B | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.6B | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.4B | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.2B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $6B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.9B | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.7B | +10% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.6B | +11% |
ADBE's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $6.8B last quarter, up 13% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 35% | -1.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -2.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 38% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 37% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 36% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 36% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 38% | +20 points |
| Q4 2024 | 35% | +0.4 points |
ADBE has the edge over SMCI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SMCI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $19.9B | +298% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.1B | +93% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.2B | +123% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.7B | +123% |
| Q3 2025 | $5B | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.8B | +7.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.7B | +55% |
SMCI's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $19.9B last quarter, up 298% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 10% | +6.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +9.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6.1% | +2.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.7% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.6% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4% | -1.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.2% | -6.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.5% | -3.7 points |
SMCI's operating margin was 10% last quarter, up 6.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ADBE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4B | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.1B | -1.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.1B | +8.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.1B | +8.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.1B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.5B | +116% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.9B | +85% |
ADBE has the edge over SMCI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SMCI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$475.6M | +$474.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $718.7M | -15% |
| Q1 2026 | -$6.7B | -1227% |
| Q4 2025 | -$45.1M | +$222.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$949.8M | -360% |
| Q2 2025 | $840.9M | +$1.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $594.1M | +$2.2B |
| Q4 2024 | -$267.3M | +$342.5M |
SMCI's free cash flow was −$6.5B over the past year, against $218M the year before.
ADBE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.7% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -6.7% | -28.6M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -64M shares |
| 5 years | -18% | -85.2M shares |
| Available history | -20% | -96.1M shares |
ADBE has the edge over SMCI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $2.1B |
| Q2 2025 | $3.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $3.3B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.5B |
ADBE spent $9.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 18% from the year before.
SMCI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.5% | +52M shares |
| 1 year | +13% | +86.1M shares |
| 3 years | +31% | +178M shares |
| 5 years | +42% | +220M shares |
| Available history | +44% | +229M shares |
SMCI has 749M diluted shares, up 13% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | $12M |
| Q1 2021 | $43.1M |
| Q4 2020 | $46.4M |
ADBE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
ADBE's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
SMCI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
SMCI has the edge over ADBE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ADBE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.8 | Neutral |
ADBE's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
SMCI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.1 | Oversold |
SMCI's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
ADBE PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ADBE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 28x | 52% below |
| PE % | 3 | 35 | 32 pts below |
ADBE is trading at 13x earnings, a 52% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
SMCI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | SMCI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.7x | 28x | 80% below |
| PE % | 0 | 35 | 35 pts below |
SMCI has the edge over ADBE on valuation relative to its sector.
ADBE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $244.1 | 2.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $248.6 | 4.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $261.6 | 8.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $321.8 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $410.6 | 42% below |
ADBE is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 42% below its 200-week average.
SMCI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $35.3 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $34.2 | 21% below |
| 50 week MA | $32.3 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $36.9 | 27% below |
| 200 week MA | $39.8 | 32% below |
SMCI is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 32% below its 200-week average.
ADBE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $330.8 | $499.9 | +51% |
| 2021 | $499.9 | $569.6 | +14% |
| 2022 | $569.6 | $338.5 | -41% |
| 2023 | $338.5 | $596.6 | +76% |
| 2024 | $596.6 | $446.5 | -25% |
| 2025 | $446.5 | $353.8 | -21% |
| 2026 YTD | $353.8 | $238.5 | -33% |
ADBE has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 33% so far in 2026.
SMCI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.41 | $3.05 | +27% |
| 2021 | $3.05 | $4.27 | +40% |
| 2022 | $4.27 | $8.22 | +93% |
| 2023 | $8.22 | $28.4 | +246% |
| 2024 | $28.4 | $32.0 | +12% |
| 2025 | $32.0 | $30.6 | -4.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $30.6 | $27.0 | -12% |
SMCI has the edge over ADBE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.