ACHC

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.

55
Fundamentals39/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential62/ 100
Risk potential38/ 100

ACHC's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

UNH

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

62
Fundamentals51/ 100
Valuation56/ 100
Upside potential71/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

UNH has the edge over ACHC overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.

ACHC Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Weak
Under pressure
Weak

ACHC's revenue is currently stable, but its profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.

UNH Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Stable
Healthy
Healthy

UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.

ACHC PE Valuation

ACHC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

UNH PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE10x21x31x42x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE10x21x31x42x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward18x$405—
Cheap19x$325-20%
Fair23x$410+1.2%
Current23x$405—
Expensive30x$526+30%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

UNH's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

ACHC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

ACHC has the edge over UNH on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.

UNH Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Stable
Improving
Moderate
Low

Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

ACHC Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+62%$61.42
Downside-38%$23.61

Calculated from the latest close: $37.81 on Nov 12.

ACHC trails UNH on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

UNH Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+36%$550.65
Downside-15%$346.07

Calculated from the latest close: $405.13 on Nov 12.

UNH has a better modeled risk to reward balance than ACHC, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

ACHC Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-0.24Q1 2024: $-0.13Q2 2024: $-0.07Q3 2024: $3.06Q4 2024: $2.78Q1 2025: $2.04Q2 2025: $1.52Q3 2025: $1.18Q4 2025: $-12.16Q1 2026: $-12.20Q2 2026: $-12.41Q3 2026: $-12.43Forward: $2.02
Q4 2023: $-0.24Q1 2024: $-0.13Q2 2024: $-0.07Q3 2024: $3.06Q4 2024: $2.78Q1 2025: $2.04Q2 2025: $1.52Q3 2025: $1.18Q4 2025: $-12.16Q1 2026: $-12.20Q2 2026: $-12.41Q3 2026: $-12.43Forward: $2.02
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.02—
Q3 2026-$12.43-1153%
Q2 2026-$12.41-916%
Q1 2026-$12.20-698%
Q4 2025-$12.16-537%
Q3 2025$1.18-61%
Q2 2025$1.52+$1.59
Q1 2025$2.04+$2.17
Q4 2024$2.78+$3.02

ACHC has swung to a loss: it lost $12.43 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.

UNH Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $23.86Q1 2024: $16.38Q2 2024: $15.10Q3 2024: $15.37Q4 2024: $15.51Q1 2025: $23.89Q2 2025: $23.09Q3 2025: $19.17Q4 2025: $13.23Q1 2026: $13.28Q2 2026: $15.58Q3 2026: $17.55Forward: $22.65
Q4 2023: $23.86Q1 2024: $16.38Q2 2024: $15.10Q3 2024: $15.37Q4 2024: $15.51Q1 2025: $23.89Q2 2025: $23.09Q3 2025: $19.17Q4 2025: $13.23Q1 2026: $13.28Q2 2026: $15.58Q3 2026: $17.55Forward: $22.65
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$22.65+29%
Q3 2026$17.55-8.5%
Q2 2026$15.58-33%
Q1 2026$13.28-44%
Q4 2025$13.23-15%
Q3 2025$19.17+25%
Q2 2025$23.09+53%
Q1 2025$23.89+46%
Q4 2024$15.51-35%

UNH has the edge over ACHC on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

ACHC Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $743MQ1 2024: $768MQ2 2024: $796MQ3 2024: $816MQ4 2024: $774MQ1 2025: $771MQ2 2025: $869MQ3 2025: $852MQ4 2025: $821MQ1 2026: $829MQ2 2026: $866MQ3 2026: $895M
Q4 2023: $743MQ1 2024: $768MQ2 2024: $796MQ3 2024: $816MQ4 2024: $774MQ1 2025: $771MQ2 2025: $869MQ3 2025: $852MQ4 2025: $821MQ1 2026: $829MQ2 2026: $866MQ3 2026: $895M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$895.3M+5.1%
Q2 2026$865.8M-0.4%
Q1 2026$828.8M+7.6%
Q4 2025$821.5M+6.1%
Q3 2025$851.6M+4.4%
Q2 2025$869.2M+9.2%
Q1 2025$770.5M+0.3%
Q4 2024$774.2M+4.2%

ACHC's revenue is growing: $895M last quarter, up 5.1% from the same quarter a year ago.

UNH Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $94.4BQ1 2024: $99.8BQ2 2024: $98.9BQ3 2024: $101BQ4 2024: $101BQ1 2025: $110BQ2 2025: $112BQ3 2025: $113BQ4 2025: $113BQ1 2026: $112BQ2 2026: $112BQ3 2026: $113B
Q4 2023: $94.4BQ1 2024: $99.8BQ2 2024: $98.9BQ3 2024: $101BQ4 2024: $101BQ1 2025: $110BQ2 2025: $112BQ3 2025: $113BQ4 2025: $113BQ1 2026: $112BQ2 2026: $112BQ3 2026: $113B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$112.7B-0.4%
Q2 2026$112B+0.4%
Q1 2026$111.7B+2%
Q4 2025$113.2B+12%
Q3 2025$113.2B+12%
Q2 2025$111.6B+13%
Q1 2025$109.6B+9.8%
Q4 2024$100.8B+6.8%

UNH has the edge over ACHC on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

ACHC Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$22MQ1 2024: −$464MQ2 2024: $17MQ3 2024: −$27MQ4 2024: −$87MQ1 2025: −$163MQ2 2025: −$34MQ3 2025: −$63MQ4 2025: −$179MQ1 2026: −$15MQ2 2026: $124MQ3 2026: $47M
Q4 2023: −$22MQ1 2024: −$464MQ2 2024: $17MQ3 2024: −$27MQ4 2024: −$87MQ1 2025: −$163MQ2 2025: −$34MQ3 2025: −$63MQ4 2025: −$179MQ1 2026: −$15MQ2 2026: $124MQ3 2026: $47M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$47.1M+$110.2M
Q2 2026$123.5M+$157.8M
Q1 2026-$15M+$148.1M
Q4 2025-$179.5M-$92.7M
Q3 2025-$63M-$35.9M
Q2 2025-$34.2M-303%
Q1 2025-$163.2M+$300.5M
Q4 2024-$86.8M-$64.4M

ACHC has burned cash in six of the last eight quarters: −$24M over the past year, against −$347M the year before.

UNH Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$6.2BQ1 2024: $401MQ2 2024: $5.9BQ3 2024: $13BQ4 2024: $1.5BQ1 2025: $4.6BQ2 2025: $6.3BQ3 2025: $5.1BQ4 2025: $160MQ1 2026: $8.1BQ2 2026: $10.3BQ3 2026: $4.3B
Q4 2023: −$6.2BQ1 2024: $401MQ2 2024: $5.9BQ3 2024: $13BQ4 2024: $1.5BQ1 2025: $4.6BQ2 2025: $6.3BQ3 2025: $5.1BQ4 2025: $160MQ1 2026: $8.1BQ2 2026: $10.3BQ3 2026: $4.3B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$4.3B-16%
Q2 2026$10.3B+63%
Q1 2026$8.1B+79%
Q4 2025$160M-89%
Q3 2025$5.1B-61%
Q2 2025$6.3B+6.9%
Q1 2025$4.6B+1037%
Q4 2024$1.5B+$7.6B

UNH has the edge over ACHC on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

ACHC Total Shares

Q4 2023: 91MQ1 2024: 92MQ2 2024: 92MQ3 2024: 92MQ4 2024: 92MQ1 2025: 92MQ2 2025: 90MQ3 2025: 91MQ4 2025: 91MQ1 2026: 91MQ2 2026: 91MQ3 2026: 92M
Q4 2023: 91MQ1 2024: 92MQ2 2024: 92MQ3 2024: 92MQ4 2024: 92MQ1 2025: 92MQ2 2025: 90MQ3 2025: 91MQ4 2025: 91MQ1 2026: 91MQ2 2026: 91MQ3 2026: 92M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.4%+372K shares
1 year+1.3%+1.2M shares
3 years+0.6%+578K shares
5 years+0.9%+857K shares
Available history+4.5%+3.9M shares

ACHC has 92M diluted shares, up 1.3% from a year ago.

UNH Total Shares

Q4 2023: 938MQ1 2024: 922MQ2 2024: 928MQ3 2024: 930MQ4 2024: 929MQ1 2025: 918MQ2 2025: 910MQ3 2025: 908MQ4 2025: 911MQ1 2026: 910MQ2 2026: 906MQ3 2026: 902M
Q4 2023: 938MQ1 2024: 922MQ2 2024: 928MQ3 2024: 930MQ4 2024: 929MQ1 2025: 918MQ2 2025: 910MQ3 2025: 908MQ4 2025: 911MQ1 2026: 910MQ2 2026: 906MQ3 2026: 902M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.4%-4M shares
1 year-0.7%-6M shares
3 years-3.6%-34M shares
5 years-5.5%-53M shares
Available history-6.6%-64M shares

UNH has the edge over ACHC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

ACHC Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 11.9xQ1 2024: 14.2xQ2 2024: 12.7xQ3 2024: 3.4xQ4 2024: 3.8xQ1 2025: 5.1xQ2 2025: 5.7xQ3 2025: 6.8x
Q4 2023: 11.9xQ1 2024: 14.2xQ2 2024: 12.7xQ3 2024: 3.4xQ4 2024: 3.8xQ1 2025: 5.1xQ2 2025: 5.7xQ3 2025: 6.8x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20256.8xHigh
Q2 20255.7xHigh
Q1 20255.1xHigh
Q4 20243.8xElevated
Q3 20243.4xElevated
Q2 202412.7xHigh
Q1 202414.2xHigh
Q4 202311.9xHigh

ACHC's net debt is about 6.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.4 years a year ago.

UNH Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 1.0xQ1 2024: 1.3xQ2 2024: 1.4xQ3 2024: 1.3xQ4 2024: 1.4xQ1 2025: 1.3xQ2 2025: 1.5xQ3 2025: 1.7xQ4 2025: 2.3xQ1 2026: 2.2xQ2 2026: 1.7xQ3 2026: 1.7x
Q4 2023: 1.0xQ1 2024: 1.3xQ2 2024: 1.4xQ3 2024: 1.3xQ4 2024: 1.4xQ1 2025: 1.3xQ2 2025: 1.5xQ3 2025: 1.7xQ4 2025: 2.3xQ1 2026: 2.2xQ2 2026: 1.7xQ3 2026: 1.7x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20261.7xHealthy
Q2 20261.7xHealthy
Q1 20262.2xModerate
Q4 20252.3xModerate
Q3 20251.7xHealthy
Q2 20251.5xHealthy
Q1 20251.3xHealthy
Q4 20241.4xHealthy

UNH's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.

ACHC Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI70.3Overbought
Stochastic70.2Neutral

ACHC's weekly RSI is 70 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 70 (neutral).

UNH Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI56.4Neutral
Stochastic60.0Neutral

UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).

ACHC PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricACHCSector medianRelative
PEN/A26x—

ACHC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricUNHSector medianRelative
PE23x26x11% below
PE %472918 pts above

UNH is trading at 23x earnings, a 11% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.

ACHC Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$31.520% above
20 week MA$30.923% above
50 week MA$24.852% above
100 week MA$25.946% above
200 week MA$48.622% below

ACHC has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 22% below its 200-week average.

UNH Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$394.22.8% above
20 week MA$400.51.2% above
50 week MA$361.212% above
100 week MA$376.07.8% above
200 week MA$446.69.3% below

UNH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 9.3% below its 200-week average.

ACHC Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$33.0$49.3+49%
2021$49.3$59.1+20%
2022$59.1$83.0+40%
2023$83.0$77.8-6.3%
2024$77.8$38.0-51%
2025$38.0$14.7-61%
2026 YTD$14.7$37.8+157%

ACHC has the edge over UNH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

UNH Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$296.0$340.8+15%
2021$340.8$495.4+45%
2022$495.4$531.3+7.3%
2023$531.3$526.5-0.9%
2024$526.5$510.0-3.1%
2025$510.0$331.8-35%
2026 YTD$331.8$405.1+22%

UNH has finished three years in a row lower, and it's up 22% so far in 2026.

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