ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
ACGL has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
SOFI
SoFi Technologies, Inc.
SOFI has the edge over ACGL overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
ACGL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
ACGL's profitability is currently strong, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like ACGL.
SOFI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SOFI's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SOFI.
ACGL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.8x | $95.05 | -13% |
| Current | 9x | $109 | — |
| Fair | 9.3x | $113 | +3.8% |
| Forward | 11x | $109 | — |
| Expensive | 12x | $152 | +40% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ACGL's PE is in its fair range at 8.9x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 11x, in its expensive range.
SOFI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $15.63 | — |
| Current | 28x | $15.63 | — |
| Cheap | 33x | $18.24 | +17% |
| Fair | 43x | $23.82 | +52% |
| Expensive | 53x | $29.74 | +90% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SOFI has the edge over ACGL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ACGL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect ACGL's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline.
SOFI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
SOFI has the edge over ACGL on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
ACGL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.79 | -20% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.21 | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.77 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.00 | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.60 | +3.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.68 | -28% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.68 | -32% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.75 | -23% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.19 | -3.7% |
ACGL earned $12.21 per share over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
SOFI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.82 | +47% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.56 | 0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.49 | -2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.45 | +4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.39 | 0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.56 | +367% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.50 | +$0.72 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.43 | +$0.72 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.39 | +$0.75 |
SOFI has the edge over ACGL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ACGL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.7B | -8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.7B | -10% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.5B | -3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.9B | +8.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | +8.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.2B | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.7B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.5B | +14% |
ACGL's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $4.7B last quarter, down 8.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2021 | 38% | +12 points |
| Q3 2021 | 14% | -7.8 points |
| Q2 2021 | 29% | +7.5 points |
| Q1 2021 | 19% | +23 points |
| Q4 2020 | 27% | +7 points |
| Q3 2020 | 22% | N/A |
| Q2 2020 | 21% | N/A |
| Q1 2020 | -4% | N/A |
ACGL's operating margin was 38% last quarter, up 12 points from the same quarter a year ago.
SOFI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +44% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +43% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +43% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $961.6M | +38% |
| Q2 2025 | $854.9M | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $771.8M | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $734.1M | +19% |
SOFI has the edge over ACGL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +7.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +9.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +6.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -4.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.2% | -0.2 points |
SOFI's operating margin was 23% last quarter, up 7.5 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
ACGL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | -19% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | -11% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | -26% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B | -6.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.6B | -5.5% |
| Q2 2024 | $1.5B | +33% |
ACGL has the edge over SOFI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SOFI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$3.1B | -$1.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$4B | -$2.5B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.4B | -$2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -$815.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.4B | -$149M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.5B | -$1B |
| Q1 2025 | -$31.1M | -104% |
| Q4 2024 | -$242.4M | +$39.9M |
SOFI's free cash flow was −$10.5B over the past year, against −$3.2B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SOFI.
ACGL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.1% | -7.4M shares |
| 1 year | -9.2% | -34.7M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -38M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -56.5M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -70.2M shares |
ACGL has the edge over SOFI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q1 2026 | $783M |
| Q4 2025 | $798M |
| Q3 2025 | $732M |
| Q2 2025 | $163M |
| Q1 2025 | $196M |
| Q4 2023 | — |
ACGL spent $4.2B buying back its own shares over the past year.
SOFI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +5.8M shares |
| 1 year | +5.2% | +66.8M shares |
| 3 years | +43% | +407M shares |
| 5 years | +272% | +993M shares |
SOFI has 1.4B diluted shares, up 5.2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
ACGL Net Leverage
SOFI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -6.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -5.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -5.8x | Net Cash |
SOFI has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SOFI.
ACGL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 69.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 81.6 | Overbought |
ACGL's weekly RSI is 69 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 82 (overbought).
SOFI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 41.5 | Neutral |
SOFI's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).
ACGL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | ACGL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9x | 13x | 31% below |
| PE % | 42 | 63 | 21 pts below |
ACGL has the edge over SOFI on valuation relative to its sector.
SOFI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SOFI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 13x | 114% above |
| PE % | 2 | 61 | 59 pts below |
SOFI is trading at 28x earnings, a 114% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
ACGL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $101.2 | 7.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $100.2 | 9% above |
| 50 week MA | $97.0 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $94.1 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $90.1 | 21% above |
ACGL has the edge over SOFI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SOFI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.7 | 0.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $17.0 | 7.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $18.9 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $18.9 | 17% below |
| 200 week MA | $13.5 | 16% above |
SOFI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 16% above its 200-week average.
ACGL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $42.6 | $34.9 | -18% |
| 2021 | $34.9 | $43.5 | +25% |
| 2022 | $43.5 | $63.4 | +46% |
| 2023 | $63.4 | $74.3 | +17% |
| 2024 | $74.3 | $92.3 | +24% |
| 2025 | $92.3 | $95.9 | +3.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $95.9 | $109.2 | +14% |
ACGL has the edge over SOFI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SOFI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.4 | $12.4 | +19% |
| 2021 | $12.4 | $15.1 | +22% |
| 2022 | $15.1 | $4.61 | -69% |
| 2023 | $4.61 | $9.95 | +116% |
| 2024 | $9.95 | $16.0 | +61% |
| 2025 | $16.0 | $27.1 | +69% |
| 2026 YTD | $27.1 | $15.6 | -42% |
SOFI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +116% in 2023 to −69% in 2022. It's down 42% so far in 2026.