ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
ACGL trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over ACGL overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
ACGL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
ACGL's profitability is currently strong, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like ACGL.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
ACGL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.8x | $95.05 | -13% |
| Current | 9x | $109 | — |
| Fair | 9.3x | $113 | +3.8% |
| Forward | 11x | $109 | — |
| Expensive | 12x | $152 | +40% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ACGL has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
ACGL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect ACGL's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over ACGL on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
ACGL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.79 | -20% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.21 | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.77 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.00 | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.60 | +3.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.68 | -28% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.68 | -32% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.75 | -23% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.19 | -3.7% |
ACGL earned $12.21 per share over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over ACGL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ACGL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.7B | -8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.7B | -10% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.5B | -3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.9B | +8.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | +8.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.2B | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.7B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.5B | +14% |
ACGL's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $4.7B last quarter, down 8.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2021 | 38% | +12 points |
| Q3 2021 | 14% | -7.8 points |
| Q2 2021 | 29% | +7.5 points |
| Q1 2021 | 19% | +23 points |
| Q4 2020 | 27% | +7 points |
| Q3 2020 | 22% | N/A |
| Q2 2020 | 21% | N/A |
| Q1 2020 | -4% | N/A |
ACGL's operating margin was 38% last quarter, up 12 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over ACGL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ACGL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | -19% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | -11% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | -26% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B | -6.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.6B | -5.5% |
| Q2 2024 | $1.5B | +33% |
ACGL has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ACGL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.1% | -7.4M shares |
| 1 year | -9.2% | -34.7M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -38M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -56.5M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -70.2M shares |
ACGL has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q1 2026 | $783M |
| Q4 2025 | $798M |
| Q3 2025 | $732M |
| Q2 2025 | $163M |
| Q1 2025 | $196M |
| Q4 2023 | — |
ACGL spent $4.2B buying back its own shares over the past year.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
ACGL Net Leverage
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ACGL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 69.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 81.6 | Overbought |
ACGL's weekly RSI is 69 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 82 (overbought).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
ACGL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | ACGL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9x | 13x | 31% below |
| PE % | 42 | 63 | 21 pts below |
ACGL has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
ACGL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $101.2 | 7.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $100.2 | 9% above |
| 50 week MA | $97.0 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $94.1 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $90.1 | 21% above |
ACGL has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
ACGL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $42.6 | $34.9 | -18% |
| 2021 | $34.9 | $43.5 | +25% |
| 2022 | $43.5 | $63.4 | +46% |
| 2023 | $63.4 | $74.3 | +17% |
| 2024 | $74.3 | $92.3 | +24% |
| 2025 | $92.3 | $95.9 | +3.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $95.9 | $109.2 | +14% |
ACGL has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.