ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
ACGL offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM has the edge over ACGL overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
ACGL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
ACGL's profitability is currently strong, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like ACGL.
JPM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
JPM's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like JPM.
ACGL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.8x | $95.05 | -13% |
| Current | 9x | $109 | — |
| Fair | 9.3x | $113 | +3.8% |
| Forward | 11x | $109 | — |
| Expensive | 12x | $152 | +40% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ACGL has the edge over JPM in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
JPM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.7x | $231 | -33% |
| Fair | 12x | $287 | -16% |
| Current | 14x | $343 | — |
| Forward | 14x | $343 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $361 | +5.2% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
JPM's PE is in its expensive range at 14.4x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 13.7x next year's earnings.
ACGL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect ACGL's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline.
JPM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
JPM has the edge over ACGL on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
ACGL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.79 | -20% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.21 | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.77 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.00 | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.60 | +3.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.68 | -28% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.68 | -32% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.75 | -23% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.19 | -3.7% |
ACGL earned $12.21 per share over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
JPM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $24.99 | +4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $23.85 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.35 | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.89 | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.02 | +1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.20 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.50 | +8.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.38 | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.75 | +22% |
JPM has the edge over ACGL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ACGL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.7B | -8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.7B | -10% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.5B | -3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.9B | +8.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | +8.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.2B | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.7B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.5B | +14% |
ACGL's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $4.7B last quarter, down 8.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2021 | 38% | +12 points |
| Q3 2021 | 14% | -7.8 points |
| Q2 2021 | 29% | +7.5 points |
| Q1 2021 | 19% | +23 points |
| Q4 2020 | 27% | +7 points |
| Q3 2020 | 22% | N/A |
| Q2 2020 | 21% | N/A |
| Q1 2020 | -4% | N/A |
ACGL's operating margin was 38% last quarter, up 12 points from the same quarter a year ago.
JPM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50.2B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $57.3B | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $49.8B | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.8B | +7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $46.4B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.9B | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $45.3B | +8.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $42.8B | +11% |
JPM has the edge over ACGL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 40% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 48% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 41% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 37% | -3.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 41% | -6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 41% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +11 points |
JPM's operating margin was 40% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
ACGL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | -19% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | -11% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | -26% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B | -6.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.6B | -5.5% |
| Q2 2024 | $1.5B | +33% |
ACGL has the edge over JPM on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
JPM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $33.2B | +$78.4B |
| Q2 2026 | -$25.3B | -186% |
| Q1 2026 | -$211.8B | +$40.1B |
| Q4 2025 | $119.7B | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | -$45.2B | +$28.9B |
| Q2 2025 | $29.5B | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | -$251.8B | -$97.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $147.8B | +145% |
JPM's free cash flow was −$84.2B over the past year, against −$120B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
ACGL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.1% | -7.4M shares |
| 1 year | -9.2% | -34.7M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -38M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -56.5M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -70.2M shares |
ACGL has the edge over JPM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q1 2026 | $783M |
| Q4 2025 | $798M |
| Q3 2025 | $732M |
| Q2 2025 | $163M |
| Q1 2025 | $196M |
| Q4 2023 | — |
ACGL spent $4.2B buying back its own shares over the past year.
JPM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -11.2M shares |
| 1 year | -3.1% | -84.6M shares |
| 3 years | -8.5% | -249M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -322M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -547M shares |
JPM has 2.7B diluted shares, down 3.1% from a year ago, with $24.5B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q2 2026 | $6.8B |
| Q1 2026 | $8.3B |
| Q4 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q3 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $4.3B |
JPM spent $24.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 11% from the year before.
ACGL Net Leverage
JPM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
JPM's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA). Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
ACGL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 69.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 81.6 | Overbought |
ACGL's weekly RSI is 69 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 82 (overbought).
JPM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.5 | Neutral |
JPM's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
ACGL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | ACGL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9x | 13x | 31% below |
| PE % | 42 | 63 | 21 pts below |
ACGL has the edge over JPM on valuation relative to its sector.
JPM PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | JPM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 10% above |
| PE % | 76 | 63 | 13 pts above |
JPM is trading at 14x earnings, a 10% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
ACGL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $101.2 | 7.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $100.2 | 9% above |
| 50 week MA | $97.0 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $94.1 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $90.1 | 21% above |
ACGL has the edge over JPM on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
JPM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $336.8 | 1.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $345.3 | 0.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $323.2 | 6.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $298.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $236.6 | 45% above |
JPM's trend is mixed: it's above four of its five weekly moving averages, and 45% above its 200-week average.
ACGL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $42.6 | $34.9 | -18% |
| 2021 | $34.9 | $43.5 | +25% |
| 2022 | $43.5 | $63.4 | +46% |
| 2023 | $63.4 | $74.3 | +17% |
| 2024 | $74.3 | $92.3 | +24% |
| 2025 | $92.3 | $95.9 | +3.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $95.9 | $109.2 | +14% |
ACGL has the edge over JPM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
JPM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $139.1 | $124.5 | -11% |
| 2021 | $124.5 | $157.3 | +26% |
| 2022 | $157.3 | $131.3 | -17% |
| 2023 | $131.3 | $170.1 | +30% |
| 2024 | $170.1 | $241.2 | +42% |
| 2025 | $241.2 | $327.9 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $327.9 | $342.8 | +4.5% |
JPM has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 4.5% so far in 2026.