AAPL
Apple Inc.
AAPL has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CMRC
Commerce.com, Inc.
CMRC has a slight edge over AAPL overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
AAPL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
AAPL's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CMRC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
CMRC's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
AAPL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 26x | $230 | -35% |
| Fair | 31x | $279 | -21% |
| Expensive | 37x | $328 | -7.5% |
| Forward | 38x | $355 | — |
| Current | 40x | $355 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AAPL's PE is in its expensive range at 40x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 38x next year's earnings.
CMRC PE Valuation
CMRC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAPL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for AAPL, but weaker profitability.
CMRC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect CMRC's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAPL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.28 | +3.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $8.98 | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.71 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.26 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.90 | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.46 | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.59 | +0.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.42 | -0.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.30 | -2% |
AAPL has the edge over CMRC on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
CMRC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.57 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.09 | +$0.07 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.08 | +$0.14 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.19 | +$0.08 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.24 | +$0.11 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.16 | +$0.20 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.22 | +$0.32 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.27 | +$0.37 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.35 | +$0.51 |
CMRC is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.09 per share over the past year, against $1.95 at its worst in late 2022.
AAPL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $114.5B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $109.4B | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $111.2B | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $143.8B | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $102.5B | +7.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $94B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $95.4B | +5.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $124.3B | +4% |
AAPL has the edge over CMRC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 31% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 33% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 32% | +1.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 35% | +0.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 30% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 34% | +0.7 points |
AAPL has the edge over CMRC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CMRC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $84.2M | -2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $84.5M | +0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $86.8M | +5.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $89.5M | +2.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $86M | +2.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $84.4M | +3.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $82.4M | +2.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $87M | +3.4% |
CMRC's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $84M last quarter, down 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.1% | -1.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.2% | +11 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6.6% | +9.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -7.4% | -6.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | -0.5% | +22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -8% | +8.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.9% | +7.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | -0.9% | +5.9 points |
CMRC's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, down 1.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AAPL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $25.9B | -2.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $31.9B | +31% |
| Q1 2026 | $26.7B | +28% |
| Q4 2025 | $51.6B | +91% |
| Q3 2025 | $26.5B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $24.4B | -8.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.9B | +0.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $27B | -28% |
AAPL's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $136B over the past year, up 38% from the year before.
CMRC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.7M | -24% |
| Q2 2026 | $50K | -100% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.1M | +$14.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $7.6M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.9M | +1.4% |
| Q1 2025 | -$424K | +$3M |
| Q3 2024 | $5.6M | +$37M |
| Q2 2024 | $11.7M | -20% |
CMRC has burned cash in most quarters: $18M over the past year, down 28% from the year before.
AAPL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +5.6M shares |
| 1 year | -1.9% | -284M shares |
| 3 years | -6.9% | -1.1B shares |
| 5 years | -13% | -2.1B shares |
| Available history | -17% | -3.1B shares |
AAPL has the edge over CMRC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.3B |
| Q2 2026 | $25.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $12.3B |
| Q4 2025 | $24.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $20.1B |
| Q2 2025 | $21.1B |
| Q1 2025 | $25.9B |
| Q4 2024 | $23.6B |
AAPL spent $86.4B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 4.8% from the year before.
CMRC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +164K shares |
| 1 year | +2.7% | +2.2M shares |
| 3 years | +10% | +7.6M shares |
| 5 years | +16% | +11.6M shares |
| Available history | +46% | +26.1M shares |
CMRC has 83M diluted shares, up 2.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2020 | — |
| Q4 2019 | — |
AAPL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.5x | Very low |
AAPL has the edge over CMRC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CMRC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.2x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.7x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 23.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 28.3x | High |
CMRC's net debt is about 5.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
AAPL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 85.0 | Overbought |
AAPL's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 85 (overbought).
CMRC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.5 | Neutral |
CMRC's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
AAPL PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | AAPL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 40x | 28x | 42% above |
| PE % | 96 | 35 | 61 pts above |
AAPL is trading at 40x earnings, a 42% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
CMRC PE vs Technology Sector
CMRC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAPL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $343.1 | 3.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $329.0 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $295.6 | 20% above |
| 100 week MA | $262.4 | 35% above |
| 200 week MA | $226.3 | 57% above |
AAPL has the edge over CMRC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CMRC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.43 | 3.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $3.06 | 16% above |
| 50 week MA | $3.13 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $4.21 | 16% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.25 | 43% below |
CMRC has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 43% below its 200-week average.
AAPL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $72.5 | $132.0 | +82% |
| 2021 | $132.0 | $176.3 | +34% |
| 2022 | $176.3 | $131.9 | -25% |
| 2023 | $131.9 | $192.5 | +46% |
| 2024 | $192.5 | $255.6 | +33% |
| 2025 | $255.6 | $273.4 | +7% |
| 2026 YTD | $273.4 | $354.9 | +30% |
AAPL has the edge over CMRC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CMRC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $79.0 | $72.8 | -7.8% |
| 2021 | $72.8 | $38.5 | -47% |
| 2022 | $38.5 | $8.34 | -78% |
| 2023 | $8.34 | $9.73 | +17% |
| 2024 | $9.73 | $6.13 | -37% |
| 2025 | $6.13 | $4.19 | -32% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.19 | $3.54 | -16% |
CMRC has finished lower in five of the last six years. It's down 16% so far in 2026.