AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
AAP has the edge over F overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
F
Ford Motor Company
F offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
AAP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
AAP's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
F Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
F's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
AAP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 18x | $29.87 | -35% |
| Fair | 23x | $37.75 | -17% |
| Current | 28x | $45.64 | — |
| Expensive | 77x | $126 | +176% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AAP's PE is in its expensive range at 28x.
F PE Valuation
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAP Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for AAP to show an outlook.
F Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect F's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.64 | +$7.94 |
| Q3 2026 | $1.37 | +$7.75 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.72 | +$6.60 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.73 | +$6.34 |
| Q3 2025 | -$6.30 | -963% |
| Q2 2025 | -$6.38 | -63900% |
| Q2 2025 | -$5.88 | -952% |
| Q4 2024 | -$5.61 | -858% |
AAP has the edge over F on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
F Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.97 | -270% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.87 | -340% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.55 | -224% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.06 | -241% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.78 | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.25 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.46 | +35% |
F has swung to a loss: it lost $1.97 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
AAP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2B | -1.2% |
| Q3 2026 | $2B | -0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.6B | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2B | -1.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $2B | -5.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $2B | -25% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -24% |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | -19% |
AAP's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $2B last quarter, down 1.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3% | +1.3 points |
| Q3 2026 | 5% | +4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.6% | +7.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.2% | +43 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.1% | +1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1% | -1.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | -5.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -41% | -39 points |
AAP's operating margin was 2.3% last quarter, up 1.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
F Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $49.5B | -2% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.3B | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $43.3B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.9B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.5B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $50.2B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.7B | -5% |
| Q4 2024 | $48.2B | +4.9% |
F has the edge over AAP on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -25% | -28 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5% | +3.1 points |
F has the edge over AAP on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$11M | +$65M |
| Q3 2026 | $195M | +$198M |
| Q2 2026 | -$75M | +$123M |
| Q4 2025 | -$21M | +$103.4M |
| Q3 2025 | -$76M | -331% |
| Q2 2025 | -$3M | -107% |
| Q2 2025 | -$198M | -$151.7M |
| Q4 2024 | -$124.4M | -161% |
AAP's free cash flow has turned positive again: $88M over the past year, against −$401M the year before.
F Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | -54% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -157% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +108% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.3B | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.2B | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | +$2.6B |
| Q4 2024 | $530M | +169% |
F has the edge over AAP on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -100K shares |
| 1 year | +1.5% | +900K shares |
| 3 years | +2.1% | +1.3M shares |
| 5 years | -3.9% | -2.4M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -10.3M shares |
AAP has 61M diluted shares, up 1.5% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1M |
| Q2 2025 | $1M |
| Q2 2025 | $2M |
| Q4 2024 | $900,000 |
| Q3 2024 | $984,000 |
| Q2 2024 | $1.3M |
| Q2 2024 | $3.3M |
| Q4 2023 | $281,000 |
F Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.2% | +89M shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +28M shares |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +26M shares |
| 5 years | +1% | +40M shares |
| Available history | +1.8% | +72M shares |
F has the edge over AAP on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $311M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $150M |
F spent $311M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 107% from the year before.
AAP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2024 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q2 2024 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2024 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2023 | 2.9x | Moderate |
AAP's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.3 years a year ago.
F Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
F has the edge over AAP on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AAP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 33.7 | Neutral |
AAP's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
F Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.6 | Oversold |
F's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
AAP PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | AAP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 18x | 54% above |
| PE % | 70 | 47 | 23 pts above |
AAP is trading at 28x earnings, a 54% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
F PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | F | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $43.8 | 4.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $48.3 | 5.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $50.7 | 9.9% below |
| 100 week MA | $49.4 | 7.5% below |
| 200 week MA | $61.4 | 26% below |
AAP has the edge over F on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
F Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.2 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.3 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.4 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 2% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.1 | 1.4% below |
F is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.4% below its 200-week average.
AAP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $158.4 | $160.7 | +1.5% |
| 2021 | $160.7 | $232.1 | +44% |
| 2022 | $232.1 | $143.3 | -38% |
| 2023 | $143.3 | $61.0 | -57% |
| 2024 | $61.0 | $44.1 | -28% |
| 2025 | $44.1 | $41.3 | -6.4% |
| 2026 YTD | $41.3 | $45.6 | +11% |
AAP has the edge over F on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
F Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.36 | $8.86 | -5.3% |
| 2021 | $8.86 | $20.3 | +129% |
| 2022 | $20.3 | $11.4 | -44% |
| 2023 | $11.4 | $12.2 | +7.3% |
| 2024 | $12.2 | $10.0 | -18% |
| 2025 | $10.0 | $13.3 | +33% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $11.9 | -11% |
F's yearly returns have swung widely, from +129% in 2021 to −44% in 2022. It's down 11% so far in 2026.