AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
AAP has the edge over BABA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
BABA offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
AAP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
AAP's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
BABA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
BABA's balance sheet is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
AAP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 18x | $29.87 | -35% |
| Fair | 23x | $37.75 | -17% |
| Current | 28x | $45.64 | — |
| Expensive | 77x | $126 | +176% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AAP's PE is in its expensive range at 28x.
BABA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $69.66 | -26% |
| Fair | 20x | $86.59 | -8.2% |
| Current | 21x | $94.36 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $115 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BABA has the edge over AAP in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
AAP Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for AAP to show an outlook.
BABA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BABA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.64 | +$7.94 |
| Q3 2026 | $1.37 | +$7.75 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.72 | +$6.60 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.73 | +$6.34 |
| Q3 2025 | -$6.30 | -963% |
| Q2 2025 | -$6.38 | -63900% |
| Q2 2025 | -$5.88 | -952% |
| Q4 2024 | -$5.61 | -858% |
AAP has returned to profit: it earned $1.64 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
BABA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57 | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79 | -22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.85 | +49% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.27 | +116% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.06 | +71% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.47 | +24% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.26 | -35% |
BABA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.42 over the past year, against $9.27 in mid-2025. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
AAP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2B | -1.2% |
| Q3 2026 | $2B | -0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.6B | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2B | -1.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $2B | -5.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $2B | -25% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -24% |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | -19% |
AAP's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $2B last quarter, down 1.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3% | +1.3 points |
| Q3 2026 | 5% | +4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.6% | +7.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.2% | +43 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.1% | +1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1% | -1.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | -5.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -41% | -39 points |
AAP's operating margin was 2.3% last quarter, up 1.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
BABA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $40.2B | +8.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $36.5B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.7B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.2B | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $42B | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $35.5B | +5.2% |
BABA has the edge over AAP on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.2% | -6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -7.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2% | -13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | 15% | 0 points |
BABA has the edge over AAP on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$11M | +$65M |
| Q3 2026 | $195M | +$198M |
| Q2 2026 | -$75M | +$123M |
| Q4 2025 | -$21M | +$103.4M |
| Q3 2025 | -$76M | -331% |
| Q2 2025 | -$3M | -107% |
| Q2 2025 | -$198M | -$151.7M |
| Q4 2024 | -$124.4M | -161% |
AAP has the edge over BABA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
BABA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$6.7B | -$4.1B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.7B | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -90% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2B | -254% |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.7B | -182% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.2B | -12231% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.4B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.1B | -62% |
BABA's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$11.6B over the past year.
AAP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -100K shares |
| 1 year | +1.5% | +900K shares |
| 3 years | +2.1% | +1.3M shares |
| 5 years | -3.9% | -2.4M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -10.3M shares |
AAP has 61M diluted shares, up 1.5% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1M |
| Q2 2025 | $1M |
| Q2 2025 | $2M |
| Q4 2024 | $900,000 |
| Q3 2024 | $984,000 |
| Q2 2024 | $1.3M |
| Q2 2024 | $3.3M |
| Q4 2023 | $281,000 |
BABA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +11.1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +21.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.2% | -161M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -339M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -221M shares |
BABA has the edge over AAP on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $269.8M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
BABA spent $270M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
AAP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2024 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q2 2024 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2024 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2023 | 2.9x | Moderate |
AAP's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.3 years a year ago.
BABA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
BABA has the edge over AAP on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AAP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 33.7 | Neutral |
AAP's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
BABA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.7 | Oversold |
BABA's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
AAP PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | AAP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 18x | 54% above |
| PE % | 70 | 47 | 23 pts above |
AAP is trading at 28x earnings, a 54% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
BABA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | BABA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 18x | 19% above |
| PE % | 60 | 47 | 13 pts above |
BABA has the edge over AAP on valuation relative to its sector.
AAP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $43.8 | 4.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $48.3 | 5.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $50.7 | 9.9% below |
| 100 week MA | $49.4 | 7.5% below |
| 200 week MA | $61.4 | 26% below |
AAP has the edge over BABA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BABA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $104.7 | 9.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $111.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $128.0 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $127.7 | 26% below |
| 200 week MA | $106.4 | 11% below |
BABA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
AAP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $158.4 | $160.7 | +1.5% |
| 2021 | $160.7 | $232.1 | +44% |
| 2022 | $232.1 | $143.3 | -38% |
| 2023 | $143.3 | $61.0 | -57% |
| 2024 | $61.0 | $44.1 | -28% |
| 2025 | $44.1 | $41.3 | -6.4% |
| 2026 YTD | $41.3 | $45.6 | +11% |
AAP has the edge over BABA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
BABA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $215.5 | $222.0 | +3% |
| 2021 | $222.0 | $118.7 | -47% |
| 2022 | $118.7 | $85.7 | -28% |
| 2023 | $85.7 | $77.5 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $77.5 | $85.1 | +9.7% |
| 2025 | $85.1 | $152.2 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $94.4 | -38% |
BABA has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 38% so far in 2026.