AAON
AAON, Inc.
AAON has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAON Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
AAON's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAON PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 23x | $78.80 | — |
| Current | 32x | $78.80 | — |
| Cheap | 40x | $98.59 | +25% |
| Fair | 48x | $117 | +48% |
| Expensive | 61x | $148 | +88% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AAON has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AAON Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for AAON, with profitability improving.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAON Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.42 | +40% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.45 | +101% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.99 | +34% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.38 | -28% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.29 | -36% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.22 | -46% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.48 | -33% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.91 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.02 | -5.2% |
AAON earned $2.45 per share over the past year, up 101% from the year before.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over AAON on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAON Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $707.4M | +84% |
| Q2 2026 | $642.1M | +106% |
| Q1 2026 | $492.5M | +53% |
| Q4 2025 | $424.2M | +42% |
| Q3 2025 | $384.2M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $311.6M | -0.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $322.1M | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $297.7M | -2.9% |
AAON has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +2.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +5.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 10% | +0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | -8.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7.6% | -14 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | -7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.9% | -11 points |
AAON's operating margin was 14% last quarter, up 2.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over AAON on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAON Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $91.9M | +650% |
| Q2 2026 | $21M | +$42.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $34M | +$43.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3M | +2186% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.3M | -81% |
| Q2 2025 | -$21.8M | -161% |
| Q1 2025 | -$9.2M | -110% |
| Q4 2024 | $845K | -98% |
AAON's free cash flow has turned positive again: $166M over the past year, against −$18M the year before.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
AAON Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -163K shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +606K shares |
| 3 years | +0.2% | +165K shares |
| 5 years | +4% | +3.2M shares |
| Available history | +5.8% | +4.6M shares |
AAON has 84M diluted shares, up 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $31.5M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | $25M |
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over AAON on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
AAON Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
AAON's net debt is about a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.7 years a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over AAON on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
AAON Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 24.0 | Neutral |
AAON's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 24 (neutral).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
AAON PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | AAON | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32x | 24x | 34% above |
| PE % | 4 | 58 | 54 pts below |
AAON is trading at 32x earnings, a 34% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over AAON on valuation relative to its sector.
AAON Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $75.6 | 4.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $85.2 | 7.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $94.6 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $94.3 | 16% below |
| 200 week MA | $85.7 | 8.1% below |
AAON has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 8.1% below its 200-week average.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over AAON on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAON Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $33.2 | $43.7 | +31% |
| 2021 | $43.7 | $52.4 | +20% |
| 2022 | $52.4 | $50.6 | -3.5% |
| 2023 | $50.6 | $73.9 | +46% |
| 2024 | $73.9 | $121.4 | +64% |
| 2025 | $121.4 | $75.8 | -38% |
| 2026 YTD | $75.8 | $78.8 | +4% |
AAON has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.